Table of Contents
- 1. Chipotle (CMG) — Brief Earnings Snapshot
- 2. Alphabet (GOOGL) — Detailed Earnings Review
- 3. Tesla (TSLA) — Detailed Earnings Review
I was planning on publishing the full Chipotle review on Saturday. Given the underwhelming comparable store guidance and the volatile stock reaction, I will be moving that article to tomorrow. I’ll also include ServiceNow coverage in that piece. I’m not happy with the Chipotle forecast revision, but I should reserve judgement until I read everything. For now, here’s part one of that review and full, detailed reviews of Alphabet and Tesla quarters.
1. Chipotle (CMG) — Brief Earnings Snapshot
a. Demand
- Missed revenue estimates by 2.1%.
- Missed -3% comparable restaurant sales growth estimates with -4% growth.
- Missed average unit volume (AUV) estimates by 1.6%.
b. Profits & margins
- Missed EBIT estimates by 1.8%.
- Beat 27.1% restaurant-level margin estimates by 30 basis points (bps; 1 basis point = 0.01%).
- Met $0.32 GAAP EPS estimates.
c. Balance Sheet
- $844M in cash & equivalents.
- $518M in long-term investments.
- Share count fell by 2.2% Y/Y.
d. Guidance & Valuation
- Chipotle again lowered its comparable restaurant sales growth guidance from low single digits to 0%. It was low-to-mid-single digits entering 2025. Not good.
- Reiterated expectations calling for 330 new stores in 2025.
Chipotle trades for 42x forward earnings. For now, EPS is expected to rise by 8% Y/Y this year and by 18% Y/Y next year. Despite meeting expectations on EPS, I think the demand guidance and EBIT miss could lead to modest negative estimate revisions.
