Table of Contents
- 1. Brief Earnings Snapshots — Apple, Airbnb & Duol …
- 2. Microsoft (MSFT) – Detailed Earnings Review
- 2. Amazon (AMZN) – Earnings Review
1. Brief Earnings Snapshots — Apple, Airbnb & Duolingo
The detailed earnings reviews for all are coming soon. For Apple and Airbnb, revenue/profit is highly seasonal and Q/Q comps shouldn’t be focused on.
a. Apple (AAPL)
Demand vs. Expectations:
- Beat revenue estimates by 0.8%. It guided to low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth. 5.1% Y/Y growth is a beat.
- Beat product revenue estimates by 1.3%.
- iPhone beat by 2.2%; Mac beat by 2.2%; iPad beat by 4%; wearables, home and accessories missed by 6.6%.
- Missed services revenue estimate slightly.
- China revenue missed by 5%.
Profitability vs. Expectations:
- Met 47% GPM estimates.
- Met EBIT estimates.
- Beat $1.62 EPS estimates by $0.03.
- Missed FCF estimates by 21%.
Balance Sheet:
- $48B in cash & short-term marketable securities.
- $84B in long-term marketable securities.
- $92B in total debt.
- Share count fell by 2.7% Y/Y. Announced a new $100B buyback worth about 3% of its gigantic market cap.
Guidance & Valuation:
Low-to-mid single-digit revenue guidance for next quarter. If we assume that means 3% Y/Y growth, it missed estimates by 5.6%. 46% GPM guidance missed 46.7% estimates. EBIT missed estimates by 11%.
As of right now, Apple trades for 29x forward EPS and likely closer to 30x following this report. EPS is expected to compound at a nearly 9% clip for the next two years.
b. Airbnb (ABNB)
Demand vs. Expectations:
- Slightly beat revenue estimates by 0.4% & beat guidance by 0.9%.
- 8% Y/Y foreign exchange neutral (FXN) growth met guidance.
- Missed 9.5% Y/Y nights and experience booked (NEB) guidance with 8% Y/Y growth. NEB missed estimates slightly.
- Slightly beat Gross Booking Value (GBV) estimates.
Profitability vs. Expectations:
- Beat EBITDA estimates by 15.5%.
- Beat FCF estimates by 20%.
- Met $0.24 GAAP EPS estimates.
Balance Sheet:
- $11.5B in cash & equivalents.
- $2B in current debt.
- Share count fell by 2.5% Y/Y/
Guidance & Valuation:
- Slightly missed Q2 revenue estimates.
- Flat to down Q2 Y/Y EBITDA margins are in-line to slightly better than estimates. Consensus was looking for a little more than a point of Y/Y margin contraction.
- Reiterated annual EBITDA margin guidance of 34.5%.
c. Duolingo (DUOL)
What an excellent quarter this was. I can’t wait to write the review. Spoiler alert — it will be positive.
Demand vs. Expectations:
- Beat bookings guide by 7.1%.
- Beat revenue estimates by 3.4% & beat guidance by 3.9%.
Profit vs. Expectations:
- Beat EBITDA estimates by 11.3% & beat guidance by 13.1%.
- Beat GAAP EBIT estimates by 16%.
- Beat $0.52 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.05.
- Beat GPM estimate by 60 bps.
Balance Sheet:
- $1B in cash & equivalents.
- No debt.
- Stock comp +24% Y/Y. Reiterated 1% shareholder dilution for 2025.
Guidance & Valuation:
- Raised annual bookings guidance by 2.3%
- Raised annual revenue guidance by 2.1%, which beat by 1.5%.
- Raised annual EBITDA guidance by 4%, which beat by 2.6%.
- The Q2 beats were a bit larger than the annual raises across the board.
Duolingo trades for 50x forward FCF and likely a few turns lower following this report. FCF is expected to compound at a 39% clip over the next two years. Those growth estimates will be revised higher.
