The Nike earnings review and a portfolio/performance update were published during the week.
1. Updated Fast Growth FCF Comp Sheet
- The average FCF dropped sharply since January 3rd from 2.1x to 1.42x (forward estimate data moved another quarter into the future & stocks kept falling).
- I skipped a year of FCF growth for FROG to avoid -54% growth this year following the move from $17M in annual FCF to $108M in two years.
- FCF is not a good metric for creditors. They're excluded.
- RBRK is lapping 10X+ Y/Y FCF growth.
- Companies like DraftKings have seen their free cash flow estimates plummet. That leads to more discounting, as people have less confidence in future targets.
- Axon FCF is expected to grow by more than 500% this year. That's related to lapping -77% Y/Y growth in 2025. I compared Y/Y growth in 2026 and the two-year CAGR to the base period in 2024 to avoid overly easy comps.
