Most of the content from this week has already been sent:
- Trade Desk Earnings Review (and a Cloudflare Snapshot)
- Shopify & Mercado Libre Earnings Reviews
- Uber Earnings Review
- AMD & Datadog Earnings Reviews
- Lemonade Earnings Review (and a Celsius Snapshot)
- Palantir & Hims Earnings Reviews
- My Current Portfolio & Performance vs. The S&P 500.
Table of Contents
- 1. Earnings Snapshots – Axon (AXON), Rocket Labs ( …
- 2. DraftKings (DKNG) – Earnings Review
- 3. Coupang (CPNG) – Earnings Review
- 4. Alphabet (GOOGL) – Search
- 5. Headlines:
- 6. Macro
The Cloudflare Earnings Review will come on Tuesday alongside Nu Holdings.
1. Earnings Snapshots – Axon (AXON), Rocket Labs (RKLB), AppLovin (APP) & Coinbase (COIN)
a. Axon (AXON)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimates by 3.0%.
- Beat EBITDA estimates by 14.1%.
- Beat GAAP EBIT estimates by 14.1%. Stock comp packages heavily impacted Q1-25, Q4-24 and Q1-24 GAAP EBIT.
- Beat $1.24 EPS estimates by $0.17.
Guidance & Valuation:
- Raised annual revenue guidance by 1.9%, which beat estimates by 1.1%.
- Raised annual EBITDA guidance by 2.0%, which beat estimates by 1.2%.
Axon trades for 110x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 2.5% this year and by 22% next year. It also trades for 76x EBITDA, with 28% EBITDA compounding expected over the next two years.
Balance Sheet:
- $2.4B in cash & equivalents.
- $2B in total notes payable.
- 5.6% Y/Y share count dilution.
b. Rocket Labs (RKLB)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimate by 1% and beat guidance by 2.5%.
- Beat 26.0% GAAP GPM guidance by 280 bps.
- Beat 31% GPM guidance by 240 bps.
- Beat -45M EBIT estimate by $9M & beat guidance by $4M.
- Beat -$34M EBITDA estimate by $4M & beat guidance by $4M.
- Beat -$0.09 EPS estimate by $0.02.
- Cash flow is extremely lumpy on a quarterly basis.
Guidance & Valuation:
- Revenue guidance missed by 1.5%.
- -$29M EBITDA guidance missed by $9M
- -$36M EBIT guidance missed by $2M.
RKLB trades for 17x forward sales (no profit). Revenue is expected to grow by 31% this year and by 55% next year. It is expected to turn EBITDA positive during 2026.
Balance Sheet:
- $425M in cash & equivalents.
- $77M in traditional debt.
- $346M in convertible senior notes.
- 3.2% Y/Y share count dilution.
c. AppLovin (APP)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimate by 7.4% & beat guidance by 8.0%.
- Ad revenue beat guidance by 11.5%; apps revenue (far less important) missed guidance by 3%.
- Beat EBITDA estimates by 15.1% & beat guidance by 15.5%.
- Beat advertising EBITDA guidance by 15.7%.
- Beat $1.96 EPS estimates by $0.42.
Guidance & Valuation:
APP sold its mobile gaming business after the quarter and only guided for the advertising portion of its business for Q2. That guidance led to revenue estimates rising by 2% (despite the sale) and EBITDA estimates rising by 11%. So we can call this a comfortable beat.
APP trades for 38x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 44% this year and by 18% next year.
Balance Sheet:
- $551M in cash & equivalents.
- $3.7B in total debt.
- Share count fell by 1.2% Y/Y.
d. Coinbase (COIN)
Results:
- Missed revenue estimate by 2.1%. Missed subscription & service revenue guidance by 3.7%.
- Slightly missed EBITDA estimates.
- Beat GAAP EBIT estimates by 3.3%.
- They technically missed $1.87 GAAP EPS estimates by $1.63. Net income is an irrelevant byproduct of crypto asset valuation changes in this specific case. Noise. Focus on GAAP EBIT & EBITDA.
This business model is violently cyclical. For context, its 4-year revenue CAGR from Q1 2021 to Q1 2025 is 5.2%. Massive peaks and valleys here.
Guidance & Valuation:
Coinbase guidance (doesn’t give overall revenue or profit guidance) led to Q2 revenue estimates falling by 13.8% and Q2 EBITDA estimates falling by 22%.
COIN trades for 16x EBITDA. EBITDA is expected to fall by 7% this year and rise by 14% next year.
Balance Sheet:
- $8.05B in cash & equivalents.
- $4.24B in debt.
- 1.2% Y/Y share count dilution.