Table of Contents
1. Alphabet (GOOGL) – Q4 2025 Earnings
a. Key Points
Fantastic quarters for Search and Cloud.
Massive 2026 CapEx guidance.
The Gemini app has 750M monthly active users vs. 650M sequentially.
b. Demand
Beat revenue estimates by 2.1%.
Constant currency (CC) revenue growth was 17% Y/Y.
It has 14 product lines over $1B in annual revenue.
Search beat estimates by 3%.
YouTube missed estimates by 3.7%.
Cloud beat estimates by 9%.
Total paid subscriptions crossed 325M vs. 300M Q/Q. Google One and YouTube Premium were the highlights (especially Music).
The cloud backlog grew by 55% Q/Q (100% Y/Y) to $240B. Importantly, contracted Anthropic compute is a big piece of the large jump, but Alphabet was careful to mention a few times that it was driven by a “wide breadth of customers.” That's nice, but Anthropic was still $50-$60B of the ~$86B increase. That’s not the same thing as getting nearly half of your entire cloud backlog from OpenAI like Microsoft does. Anthropic is relatively more fiscally responsible than its aggressive rival and not throwing out giant spend commitments left and right. Still, they are burning a lot of cash and this does create more concentration risk.


c. Margins
EBIT missed estimates by 2.9%.
Cloud EBIT beat estimates by 45%
Other bets EBIT missed $1.3B estimates by $2.4B.
EPS beat $2.64 estimates by $0.18.
EPS rose by 31% Y/Y.
FCF beat estimates by 57%.
CapEx was 1.5% below expectations, so that did not help the FCF beat.
EBIT included $2.1B in compensation related to the Waymo investment round. This was part of operating expenses (OpEx). Excluding the item, EBIT beat estimates by 3%. At the same time, equity investments boosted net income by $2.3B. Excluding both of those items, EPS would have beaten estimates by $0.16 instead of $0.18. The Waymo charge led to sharp R&D growth and OpEx growth of 29% Y/Y. 21% G&A growth was also elevated, but that was due to charitable donation timing.

Services = Search, YouTube Ads, Google Network and its Subscriptions

d. Balance Sheet
$127B in cash & equivalents; $38B in non-marketable securities.
$46.5B in debt. Took out $25B in unsecured notes during the quarter.
Share count fell by 1% Y/Y.
e. Guidance & Valuation
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