News of the Week (January 15-19)
Taiwan Semi; The Trade Desk; Uber; PayPal; Amazon; SoFi; Meta; Super Micro Computer; Disney; Duolingo; Progyny; Macro; Portfolio
Today’s Piece is Powered by My Friends at BBAE:
1. Taiwan Semi (TSM) – Earnings Review
Taiwan Semi builds chipsets for other companies like Nvidia and Qualcomm. It does so in its highly expensive, highly complex chip fabrication plants. These are called “fabs” for short.
Fab means a factory
Nanometer (NM) describes the chip technology. Smaller NM is more advanced as it uses smaller transistors. Its newest 3 NM technology also includes an upgraded transistor technology to bolster the capacity. This means TSM can add more transistors to a single chip while making those chips more energy efficient and cost-effective.
“Advanced Technology” Revenue = revenue from 3nm, 5nm & 7nm technology.
Wafer refers to the raw materials (like silicon) that are used to manufacture chips and manipulate the materials with desired tasks.
TSM beat revenue estimates by 0.3% & beat its guidance by 2.2% at the midpoint. Its 15.7% 3-year revenue compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) compares to 12.3% as of last quarter & 14.7% 2 quarters ago.
Met GAAP gross profit margin (GPM) estimates & beat its 52.5% GAAP GPM guidance by 50 basis points. (bps = basis point; 1 bps = 0.01%)
Beat 41% GAAP EBIT margin estimates by 60 bps & beat its guidance by 80 bps.
Beat $1.39 GAAP earnings per share (EPS) estimates by $0.05. It trades for about 18x next 12-month earnings.
Beat revenue estimate by 0.9%.
Beat 39.4% GAAP EBIT margin estimate by 160 bps.
Beat 51.3% GAAP GPM estimate by 170 bps.
Dividend growth will be roughly 17% Y/Y next quarter & will continue growing from there.
It also expects CapEx of $30 billion for the full year vs. $30.4 billion in 2023.
Guided to mid 20% Y/Y revenue growth, which compares very nicely to consensus looking for 21.3% Y/Y growth.
c. Balance Sheet
$54.3 billion in cash, equivalents & marketable securities.
$30 billion in bonds payable.
Inventory rose 13.6% Y/Y. Still, days of inventory fell 11 days Y/Y due to strong 3NM demand.
Dividends rose 2.3% Y/Y in 2023 vs. 2022.
Accounts receivable fell 4 days Y/Y to 31 days.
d. Call & Release Highlights
Demand & Macro Context:
A strong ramping of 3NM tech was credited with the demand outperformance this quarter. It was a “tough year for the industry” per the team. Weakening macro, high inflation and soaring cost of capital all “prolonged the global semiconductor inventory adjustment cycle.” Still, its tech leadership powered its outperformance of -8.7% Y/Y growth vs. -13% for its overall sector. Furthermore, based on the 2024 guide, it sees growth sharply recovering in the quarters ahead as it’s “well positioned to capture AI and high performance compute growth opportunities” with its advanced technology. Its mid 20% 2024 revenue growth guide compares to overall industry growth of 10% and 20% Y/Y for its foundry category.
Inventory levels across the industry are now, finally getting back to “healthier levels.” The company is confident that its “business has bottomed out Y/Y.” All in all, leadership reiterated its 15%-20% annual revenue growth target first offered in January 2022.
The gross margin decline for the year (contracted 520 bps for all of 2023 Y/Y) was as expected. It’s based on 3NM volume ramping to a point of margin maturity. That takes time. For now, it’s a continued gross margin headwind while becoming a larger portion of its overall revenue.
TSM also continues to invest heavily in R&D to “extend its tech leadership.” It always invests ahead of expected demand opportunities and does not shy away from doing so if end markets weaken for a few quarters. It takes the extremely long term view, which is needed when its fab plant expansion takes several years to deliver. It decided to keep the pedal to the metal here in 2023 despite weakening demand. This led to EBIT margin falling 690 bps Y/Y for 2023.
For 2024, better capacity utilization will help margins as demand recovers. Its continued investments in 3 nanometer will hurt gross margin by 300-400 bps for the year. Furthermore, it’s working on converting some N5 capacity to N3 capacity to support the multi-year demand ramp. This will mean heightened margin pressure in 2024 by another 100-200 bps. It will mean lower costs thereafter. Over the long haul, ex-volatile foreign exchange, it remains confident in a 53%+ gross margin.
New 3NM Tech & N2:
Taiwan Semi continues to iterate on its 3NM node. Its N3E, N3X and N3P chips are all in the works and began volume production this quarter. These offer higher performance and different use cases for its end customers. All are key pieces in its expectation of 200%+ Y/Y revenue growth within its 3NM revenue bucket.
For its newest 2NM node, “consumer interest and engagement” compared to N3 is “much higher.” The first iteration of its 2NM technology will begin volume production next year. To cater to high performance computing use cases, it will offer a chip with a backside power rail solution by 2026. Traditionally, power is transferred to transistors from the front of the chip. By moving it to the back, energy efficiency and heat management are both improved. TSM is always innovating.
“A surge in AI-related demand in 2023 supports our already strong conviction that the structural demand for energy-efficient computing will accelerate in an intelligent and connected world. TSMC is a key enabler of AI applications. No matter which approach is taken, AI technology is evolving to use more complex AI models as the amount of computation required for training and inference is increasing.” – TSM Leadership
Global Factory Footprint:
In Japan, it expects its 12-28 nanometer tech facility to open in February and begin volume production in Q4 2024.
In Arizona, it remains in “close contact with the U.S. government on incentives and tax credit support.” It’s making “strong progress” with Arizona labor groups and is now installing equipment at its first planned fab in the states. Volume production is expected to begin in early 2025.
In Germany, it continues to work towards a new factory in Dresden for auto and industrial end markets.
In Taiwan, it’s greatly expanding 3NM capacity to meet demand.
2. The Trade Desk (TTD) – Come to Papa & Leadership
a. Come to Papa
At the beginning of the year, I placed The Trade Desk in my fundamentally elite but very expensive holding category. At that time, it was trading for around 135x next 12 month operating income. It was also trading for an EBIT multiple/3-year EBIT CAGR of 1.99x. This made it the 6th most expensive growth and technology name in my broad coverage network. Since then, the shares have cooled off quite a bit. The EBIT multiple is now closer to 100x, and likely below that considering the company consistently surpasses profit estimates. The 1.99x EBIT growth multiple has also fallen below 1.50x, which is now below average within its bucket of companies.
I’ve trimmed 6 times in the last 12 months. None of these trims had anything to do with the quality of the firm’s performance, but were solely based on an aggressively steep multiple. The company is simply an elite executor, Jeff Green is a fantastic CEO and its niche is highly compelling. The stock just got way ahead of itself, so I lightened up. The price tag has now waned to a point where I’ve added to my stake for the first time in over a year. I hope to continue doing so into more material multiple contraction. I think there’s a chance that Q4 looks less impressive than its quarters normally do before performance improves in 2024. That could give me the chance to keep re-building the position.
The Trade Desk boasts a tangible edge in its ability to double average ad placement efficacy for its buyers. This means it outperforms during poor advertising demand times like in 2022 as buyers scrutinize every dollar spent even more and flock to the highest return relationships. The Trade Desk is the partner to deliver unmatched returns in the open internet. Returns are better, consistent identification of customers, reporting, and transparency are also just better. While all of this meant that it vastly outgrew the market in 2022 and “took more share in one year than ever,” the share gains were harshly masked by generally poor macro and ad purchasing appetite. Growing faster than the competition still meant growth slowing towards 20% Y/Y.
Now, with monetary policy easing, recessionary fears diminishing and commentary on bottoming demand from nearly every digital advertising staple over the last several months, I think the sector is becoming much more inviting. That’s happening while The Trade Desk stock has endured some sorely needed multiple compression. It will continue to take more market share like it has for over a decade. Those market share gains will be much more noticeable as sector growth accelerates; they should foster an acceleration beyond the current 20% growth currently expected for 2024. The cyclical industry is entering a more enjoyable part of this current cycle. That will prop up TTD’s growth as it continues to dominate within the two best secular growth stories in programmatic advertising: Retail Media and Connected TV. Fortune 500 retailers are lining up to partner with it. Every single streamer is embracing advertising.
The Trade Desk created a new role this week and appointed Tim Sims as Chief Commercial Officer.
Jed Dederick is the company’s new Chief Revenue Officer. Tim Sims had been the firm’s Chief Revenue Officer before this.
The firm’s Chief Strategy Officer, Sam Jacobson, was added to the firm’s board of directors.
“The Trade Desk has grown more rapidly and gained more market share in the last four years than at any point in our history, and these leadership appointments ensure that we are well positioned to continue on that high-growth trajectory.” – Co-Founder/CEO Jeff Green
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3. Uber Technologies (UBER) – Drizzly
Uber is shuttering Drizzly just 3 years after paying around $1 billion for it. Like many, many others during the pandemic, capital allocation here was perhaps too lax. This is the result. Drizzly was a back-end provider of delivery technology for alcohol stores. Now, Uber plans to simply continue offering alcohol delivery within its core UberEats product. This more familiar Uber format will be similar to its overall business, as it won’t just be a back-end facilitator. The move will likely allow for some cost cutting and better product cohesion as well. Drizzly has struggled with things like cybersecurity and profitable growth in the past. It was a headache; this is the Advil.
4. PayPal (PYPL) – CEO Interview & an Event
Alex Chriss gave an interview on CNBC today. The more I listen to him talk, the more I like him. He’s very blunt, very stoic, and seemingly very intelligent. Still, this will take time to fix. PayPal is a mess that cannot be cleaned up nearly as seamlessly as a Meta in late 2021. I’ve said it before and it bears repeating: My expectations are basically zero for Q4 and will build throughout 2024. He will need to deliver the progress that he expects for me to stay a shareholder through this entire year. Here were the highlights from his interview:
Chriss astutely responded to questions about analyst downgrades by saying “there has not been much to celebrate for a few years.” He called innovation slow and the value proposition not at the level PayPal is capable of delivering. He “loves to be an underdog” and confidently proclaimed that PayPal will “shock the world.” We shall see. Words like this only become meaningful to me when they’re backed up with stellar results. Chriss is only a few months into his tenure. Give him time to prove or not prove himself.
Despite competition ramping and PayPal’s product suite lagging, he’s very optimistic that these issues will be short-lived. PayPal has an unmatched 1st party data set needed to drive better customer discovery with more savings. This data will also be paramount in its ability to raise merchant conversion rates to bolster PayPal success. It can easily use open-source models from players like Meta and Hugging Face, infuse its first party data and create a uniquely valuable means of maximizing conversion (so merchant success).
Furthermore, it will be a key tool in its ability to better connect the vast two-sided network and drive down customer acquisition cost. All of this innovation will be officially announced and released with more detail next week during PayPal’s first “Innovation Day” on the 25th.
Finally, he spoke about capital allocation. He hinted at headcount being too large, PayPal conducting too much M&A and a lack of focus. He has since streamlined priorities, which has committed to pursuing only profitable growth. PayPal is expected to exit some businesses in the near future. The stock rallied more aggressively and on heavier volume than it has in a long time following this interview. That speaks to the sheer bloat in PayPal’s headcount and all of the low hanging fruit remaining to cut costs. Eventually, transaction margin will need to bottom to deliver durable profit growth. While it gets to that point however, cutting non-transaction OpEx like headcount and cash burning businesses will allow it to grow EBIT and net income in the nearer term. That’s also needed. A 7% layoff in early 2023 was unfortunately not nearly enough.
5. Amazon (AMZN) – Encouraging Datapoint, Sports & More
a. Encouraging Datapoint
Piper Sandler published some research on cloud spending appetite this week. It measured the “net intentions” for customer spend following all of the workload optimization taking place over the last year +. For all cloud providers except AWS, spend intentions worsened from the middle of 2023 to the end of 2023. Specifically, AWS rose from 56% to 58%, Azure fell from 66% to 60% and Google Cloud fell sharply from 62% to 38%. That 38% is now in line with IBM and just ahead of Oracle. Internal advertising demand surveys from the firm were also “positive.” Its expectations for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 are generally in line with consensus.
As previously rumored, Amazon is buying a stake in Diamond Sports Group. This is the owner of Bally Sports and has content rights to a few dozen professional sports teams. These games will now be offered on Amazon’s streaming service. Live sports are perhaps the best tool for attracting eyeballs to an increasingly large selection of streaming services. That’s why it’s spending on relationships like this and NFL game rights too. As a Disney & Amazon shareholder, I’d selfishly love to see the two partner up on ESPN. ESPN’s new NFL relationship would make the already compelling partner all the more enticing to work with.
In other Amazon news:
It’s working on releasing a new version of its Alexa software. It will supposedly launch a paid subscription for the virtual assistant in 2024. More subscriptions… more margin accretion. Every small piece (and bigger pieces like the regional fulfillment overhaul and ad-load growth) will add up.
It’s firing 5% of its “Buy with Prime” employees. This is supposed to be a fulfillment growth story, so that was a surprise. Still, the firm added that it remains a key focus and that it will continue to invest into the segment.
Amazon will invest $15 billion to expand its Japanese cloud footprint.
Regulators are going to block the iRobot acquisition. This doesn’t really matter a lot to me, but I still find it extremely silly. You’re going to tell me Microsoft… the tech giant and owner of Xbox and Minecraft… can buy Activision Blizzard? But Amazon can’t buy the maker of Roomba for fears of cornering the ~all-important~ robot vacuum market. Good job, regulators. You rock.
Mizuho named Amazon its top pick in 2024. It sees above consensus AWS growth.
6. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) & Discovery Financial (DFS) – New Product & Discover Financial Read Through
a. New Product
SoFi continues to dip its toes into new financial services. Whether it’s rewards partnerships, home lending or now small business lending, it truly wants to be the one-stop-shop for everything.
This week, SoFi debuted an expected small business lending product. SoFi will not be issuing these loans, but instead connecting applicants to its network of originating partners. It’s similar to the personal loan marketplace product (called Lantern) in that SoFi isn’t the actual source of funding. Conversely, this will be the only business product that it offers for now while Lantern is where SoFi sends rejected personal loan applicants. I see this as the commencement of its expansion into additional small business use cases. Whether that’s working capital management or bill pay next, I think this is just the tip of the iceberg.
For now, SoFi will likely use all of this business lending data to season potential algorithms for a future credit product (where it actually is the originator). I’m speculating, but somewhat confidently so. Personally speaking, SoFi offering business accounts would lead me to move my account over immediately. Give the people what they want. In its journey to meet ALL needs of its customers, some of those needs will naturally entail entrepreneurship. This is part of being that one-stop-shop.
b. Discover Financial
Discover Financial delivered a bad quarter this past week. Charge-off rates and overall credit quality deteriorated more quickly than expected. Some are assuming this means SoFi and other issuers will struggle with the exact same issue (despite Ally & AmEx looking pretty good this week). That’s always possible. Credit quality maintenance gets more difficult as macro worsens. SoFi needs to maintain high quality credit metrics and that will be difficult in 2024.
Credit quality worsening is the main risk to the SoFi bull case. I thought the risk was more pressing in 2022 and 2023, but it won’t vanish in 2024. Poor performance here would lead to balance sheet bottlenecks, slowing revenue growth, challenging profit generation and more challenges. This risk must be respected, but it is not overly alarming in my view. Here are the reasons why:
First and foremost, SoFi reiterated its plans for consistent profitability and tangible book value growth earlier this month. That cannot happen if its credit quality falls off a cliff. The former and the latter in this case are mutually exclusive. Furthermore, SoFi’s fair value credit assumptions include 2.5% GDP contraction and 5% unemployment. Neither of these items have come remotely close to playing out. Its guidance includes the type of origination and fair value environment that coincide with that conservative outlook. That’s a large part of its comfortable loss rate outperformance. SoFi’s guidance includes expectations of more loss rate deterioration. With macro developing in a more favorable manner than its overly prudent expectations, it should be well positioned to keep outperforming.
But wait, there’s more. Discover handles the lowest credit quality network in the business. This is not Visa, Mastercard or American Express. They cater to a larger cohort of fragile borrowers. That’s why they’ve struggled with credit quality for the last few quarters while the others mentioned (and SoFi) have seen continued consumer resilience. To me, Discover Financial is to gauging credit quality as Snapchat is to a social advertising.
Additionally, SoFi’s credit and capital market access have comfortably outperformed expectations across the board into 2024. It’s not like late 2022 and 2023 were easy environments for lenders… quite the opposite. That’s the luxury of responsible underwriting, immense selectivity and an average borrower FICO well over 750. And finally, most of SoFi’s credit card debt held on its balance sheet is just refinanced unsecured personal credit. Its highly strict approval process and existing repayment data on the specific loans are a lot different than letting consumers go buy a couch with a plastic card.
7. Meta Platforms (META) – Zuck AI Announcements
Zuck took to social media this week to update investors on Meta’s latest developments in AI and the metaverse. Meta will consolidate AI research teams to “support the long term goal of building general intelligence, open sourcing it and making it available to everyone.” He reiterated that Llama3 (its latest and greatest foundational model) will be open-sourced as well. Surely developers will be eager to get their hands on it to build new applications and optimizations on top of it. That’s the beauty of open source and its push to commoditizing foundational models. If you can give developers best-in-class tools and compelling incentives, such as Llama3 and Quest (yes, Quest), they will flock to your ecosystem. As that happens, the cost of innovation and community-driven optimization briskly falls. Furthermore, adoption is boosted as its lower cost models and headsets flood the market. That traffic reinforces a positive feedback loop in which even more 3rd party developers are attracted to building on the platforms that the world is actually using.
This will make Meta among the most efficient foundational model and AI players. It’s outsourcing a great deal of internal innovation to the best 3rd party developers in the world. That’s the playbook here and is the same path this company took with its social media apps. Why make a few million when you can keep things free, build a user base of half the world and monetize elsewhere for billions upon billions in profits? Meta continues to take this long term approach and says it’s doing so to “let more people benefit.” While that’s true, more people benefitting is simply a byproduct of Meta benefitting more down the road.
To support its vast GenAI ambitions, Zuck announced that Meta will have 350,000 Nvidia H100 GPU chips by the end of 2024 and 600,000 H100 compute equivalents from competitors such as AMD (most likely). For context, 350,000 Nvidia H100 chips cost about $14 billion with no volume discounts. Finally, Zuck told us that the new Ray Ban smart glasses are off to a “very strong start.” Vague, but I still love to hear it.
8. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) – Notable Pre-announcement
SMCI pre-announced its upcoming quarterly results this week… and boy was it an impressive release. Revenue is now expected to be 29% higher than its previous guide of $3.625 billion at the midpoint. It also now expects earnings per share of $5.47, which is $1.03 better than its previous guidance. Finally, it sees GAAP EPS of $4.97, which is $0.97 better than its previous guidance. Mic drop. Congrats to shareholders. SMCI designs high performance servers and computers. This bodes very well for sectors like AI, high performance compute and general data center demand. That’s why we saw the semiconductor sector perform so strongly on Friday.
9. Disney (DIS) – ESPN Bet & Blackwells
I’ve been searching for performance data on ESPN Bet, and I finally found some this week. JMP Securities published download data from the NFL’s Wildcard Week. ESPN Bet claimed 14% of the download market share from that week. This compares to mid-to-high single digit volume growth that Penn enjoyed when ESPN Bet was still called Barstool Sportsbook. Quite the bump, which just shows you the power of ESPN’s brand. Barstool is certainly no slouch in the world of sports media brands. It has a large cult following; it just cannot match the clout that ESPN brings.
During that week, ESPN Bet enjoyed 147% Y/Y download growth compared to 11% Y/Y for DraftKings (the clear share leader today). For the NFL season as a whole, ESPN Bet enjoyed 417% Y/Y download growth (vs. when it was called Barstool Sportsbook) with DraftKings at 5% Y/Y growth. While ESPN Bet is taking share DraftKings will likely remain the long-term share leader. Its user-base has proven remarkably sticky, despite virtually no switching costs. Still, I also think ESPN Bet will be part of the betting powerhouses with DraftKings and Fanduel. The rumored NFL partnership would make me even more confident in that happening. There’s a lot to like about that for Disney, as it’s paid for its brand and owns $500 million in Penn warrants. These warrants should become more valuable as Penn’s online sports gambling morphs from an underdog to a centerpiece.
In other Disney news, it rejected activist investor Blackwells Capital’s 3 board member nominations for “lacking needed experience.” It also unsurprisingly rejected Trian’s nominations (another activist), but the Blackwells news is a bit more surprising considering this was supposed to be a “friendly” activist. This is actually good news for shareholders. It diminishes support for Disney’s current turnaround path and adds significantly more pressure on the current executive team to deliver on promises in a timely manner. Perhaps if they don’t, Blackwells and Trian will team up to force some more drastic shareholder value actions. I’m speculating, but you get my point.
10. Duolingo (DUOL) – Downgrade
Goldman Sachs downgraded Duolingo this week on GenAI concerns. This is the key risk facing the business today. How will it continue to rapidly innovate and stay ahead of the curve as GenAI makes its way further into education? Bears will say that Duolingo becomes obsolete when I can translate languages in real-time. Bulls, like me, say casual language learning and knowledge building are different use cases than needing to know the sentence the person in front of you is saying. People learn languages to get closer to their spouses… They learn languages because they love learning… They learn languages because they need a better job in the U.S. or elsewhere. I don’t think GenAI will remove the need for any of these use cases. Applicants who can actually speak the language will always have an advantage. Bulls will also say that language learning is simply one of dozens of lessons that Duolingo plans to offer going forward. This can’t be a $20 billion + company as the language learning powerhouse. It can grow to that size if it’s the learning powerhouse.
But sticking with language learning for now, GenAI will clearly change the landscape. I just think Duolingo, with its stellar team, unmatched dataset and split-testing machine, will stay ahead of the curve. It has a deep relationship with OpenAI with access to its latest and greatest models. It has significant internal talent to automate content creation. GenAI will disrupt and change language learning… not Duolingo in my shareholder opinion.
Despite these beliefs, it’s still absolutely a risk that GenAI erodes Duolingo’s demand. While I have trimmed several times in the last few quarters, that was purely based on valuation and not this concern. I expect Duolingo to continue as the learning innovation juggernaut that it has always been. GenAI won’t change that… but accelerate it.
11. Progyny (PGNY) – New Partner
Progyny added Vistia Health to its network of preferred partners including Blue Cross Blue Shield. Visitia generated $77.5 million in revenue for its most recent year, making it a smaller win vs. Blue Cross and others. Still, Progyny will now be the preferred partner for all of its employer clients seeking fertility benefits for their team. Partnerships like this will add up over time and will make Progyny’s go-to-market even more efficient than it already is.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for January was -43.7. This compares to -5 expected and -14.5 last month.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for January was -10.6. This compares to -7 expected and -12.8 last month.
Industrial Production M/M for December rose 0.1%. This compares to 0% growth expected and 0% growth last month.
Housing Starts for December were 1.460 million. This compares to 1.426 million expected and 1.525 million last month.
Core Retail Sales M/M for December rose 0.4%. This compares to expectations of 0.2% growth and 0.2% growth last month.
Retail Sales M/M for December rose 0.6%. This compares to expectations of 0.4% growth and 0.3% growth last month.
Continuing Jobless Claims were 1.806 million. This compares to 1.845 million expected and 1.832 million in the last report.
Initial Jobless Claims were 187,000. This compares to 207,000 expected and 203,000 last month.
Existing Home Sales M/M for December grew by -1.0%. This compares to 0.3% growth expected and 0.8% growth last month.
Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations for January were 2.9%. This compares to 3.1% expected and 3.1% last month.
Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations for January were 2.8%. This compares to 3.0% expected and 2.9% last month.
Michigan Consumer Expectations for January came in at 75.9. This compares to 67.0 expected and 67.4 last month.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 78.8. This compares to 70 expected and 69.7 last month.
In addition to my TTD purchase already mentioned, I made several moves during the week after more than a month of inactivity. First, I cut ties with Nanox once and for all. It was 0.2% of the portfolio and was simply a distraction. I wanted to focus on the rest of my holdings and coverage network and free up some time.
I trimmed a little less than 10% of my CrowdStrike stake this week based solely on valuation. It has continued to appreciate and seems to have gotten ahead of itself. It kept getting more expensive this week, so I trimmed. I also trimmed a little bit of Duolingo (around 10%). I’m sitting on some large profit over a short period of time, and I don’t think my previous trims did quite enough to reflect that. With this incremental sale, I think I’ve caught up and don’t plan on trimming again in the near future.
I increased my SoFi position by 8%, increased my Amazon position by 9%, increased my Lemonade position by 29% and increased my Progyny position by 5%.
Also, I no longer track my portfolio on Savvy Trader. As previously mentioned, I did not want to charge you $50 per month for access to my transactions. That is now required on the site. Going forward, I’m just going to take screenshots right from the brokerage account. That’s what you can see below. It’s from Schwab, so it’s not super pretty. I’m working on a second (prettier) spreadsheet to also share weekly. I will share that and the actual brokerage screenshot for full transparency. All that’s changing is that I’m sharing return data from the primary source rather than a secondary source. Holdings aren’t changing. Portfolio start date isn’t changing. Performance since inception isn’t changing. Nothing else is changing. I will also begin to periodically include performance charts. As I take the very long term investing view, do not expect these to come weekly. I wanted to include it this week considering the change.