Most of this week’s content has already been sent:
Next week’s schedule includes a Monday (make-up) Cloudflare earnings review, a Tuesday Nvidia earnings review, a Wednesday Palo Alto earnings review, a Thursday (make-up) Microsoft earnings review and more!
Today's Content:
1. Zeta (ZETA) – Brief Earnings Snapshot
I will be writing full reviews on this company starting next quarter. As a reminder, “reviews” are detailed and “snapshots” are not.
a. Demand
Beat revenue estimate by 4.6% & beat guide by 4.7%. Organic revenue growth (ex-Marigold & political) was 30% Y/Y vs. 28% Y/Y last quarter.
b. Profits
Beat EBITDA estimate by 4.7% & beat guide by 4.8%.
Beat FCF estimate by 19%.
Beat $0.05 GAAP EPS estimate by $0.09.
c. Balance Sheet
$340M cash & equivalents.
$243M debt.
Stock comp +16% year-to-date.
Diluted share count rose by 19.0% Y/Y
d. Guidance & Valuation
Q4 revenue guide beat by 2.5%.
Q4 EBITDA guide beat by 2.8%.
Raised 2026 guidance across the board via strong Q3 & Q4 guide.
ZETA trades for 29x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 28% this year and by 18% next year.
2. Rocket Lab (RKLB) – Brief Earnings Snapshot
a. Demand
Rocket Lab beat revenue estimates by 4.1% & beat guidance by 4%.
b. Profits
Beat 36% GPM estimate & guide by 240 bps each.
Beat -$21M EBITDA estimate by $2.7M & beat guide by $2.0M.
Missed -$0.07 GAAP EPS estimate by $0.05.
Missed -$22M FCF estimate by $1.6M.
c. Balance Sheet
$4.7B cash, equivalents & marketable securities.
$1.3M convertible notes.
Basic share count +23.4% Y/Y.
d. Guidance & Valuation
Q4 revenue guide beat by 5.5%.
Q4 GPM guide beat by 180 bps.
Q4 EBITDA guide missed by 35% ($4.4M).
RKLB trades for 33x forward sales. Revenue is expected to grow by 63% this year and by 37% next year. EBITDA is expected to turn positive in 2027. GAAP EPS and FCF are expected to turn positive in 2028.
3. Cerebras (CBRS) – Brief Earnings Snapshot
a. Demand
Beat core revenue estimate by 7.6% & beat guide by 7.4%.
b. Profits
Beat 39.2% core GPM estimate by 180 bps & beat guide by 200 bps.
Beat -23.8% core operating margin estimate by 950 bps & beat guide by 970 bps.
Beat -$38.5M core net income estimate with $29.8M;
Missed -$606M FCF estimate by $233M.
c. Balance Sheet
$7.8B in cash & equivalents.
$850M debt capacity.
Rapid dilution via IPO.
d. Guidance & Valuation
Q4 core revenue guide beat estimates by 16.4%;
Q4 48% core GPM guide beat by 6 points
Q4 0% core EBIT margin guide beat by 25 points.
Raised 2026 guide across board to reflect Q3 & Q4 guide strength.
CBRS trades for 16x forward sales. Revenue is expected to grow by 77% this year and by 229% next year. They’re also expected to jump from -$3.93 in 2026 GAAP EPS to $1.23 in 2027 and $8 in 2028. It trades for 14x those 2028 EPS estimates.
4. Onds (ONDS) – Brief Earnings Snapshot
a. Demand
Beat revenue estimate by 13.1% & beat guide by 13.6%.
Organic revenue growth was 64% Y/Y vs. 85% Y/Y last quarter and 63% Y/Y three quarters ago.
b. Profits
Missed 41.7% GPM estimate by 1990 bps or by 700 bps excluding acquisition amortization and a massive inventory spike from $59M to $111M Q/Q to support growth.
Missed -$40.1M EBITDA estimate by $19.6M & missed guide for smaller Q/Q EBITDA losses.
Beat -$0.14 GAAP EPS estimate by $0.04.
c. Balance Sheet
$820M in cash & equivalents.
$6M in notes.
138% Y/Y diluted share growth.
d. Guidance & Valuation
Raised 2026 revenue guide by 2.3% to at least $550M & beat estimates by 2.5%.
Q4 revenue guidance missed estimates by 1.9% at most ($250M+ guide). It expects 75% Y/Y organic growth.
Initial 2027 revenue target of at least $1.1B (100% Y/Y growth; 40%+ organic).
Pulled forward company-wide EBITDA profitability target to Q3 2027 (from Q4 2027).
ONDS trades for 3.1x forward sales. Revenue is expected to grow by 997% this year and by 100% next year. Annual EBITDA is expected to turn positive in 2028 alongside EPS and FCF.
5. CoreWeave (CRWV) – Brief Earnings Snapshot
a. Demand
Beat revenue estimates by 3.4% & beat guidance by 3.9%.
b. Profits
Beat EBIT estimates by 57.7% & beat guidance by 64.8%.
Beat EBITDA estimates by 10.3%. Beat -$1.21 EPS estimates by $0.26.
Beat -$10.8B FCF estimates by $3.3B. CapEx $3B lower than expected.
c. Balance Sheet
$4.2B cash & equivalents.
$46.9B debt.
Diluted share count +12.2% Y/Y.
d. Guidance & Valuation
Raised 2026 revenue guide by 2.7% which beat estimates by 2.2%.
Raised 2026 EBIT guide by 25.6% which beat estimates by 25.0%.
Raised exit-2026 annualized run-rate revenue guide by 8%.
Reiterated 1.85+ GW of active power by year-end.
CRWV trades for 4x forward enterprise value to sales). Revenue is expected to grow by 155% this year and by 107% next year. It also trades for 24x forward EBIT. EBIT is expected to grow by 99% Y/Y this year and by 252% Y/Y next year. EPS is not expected to turn positive (lot of interest expense here) until 2028. FCF is now expected until the early 2030s.
6. Take Two Interactive (TTWO) – Brief Earnings Snapshot
a. Demand
Missed net bookings estimate by 3.3% & missed guide by 2.7%.
GAAP revenue beat guide by 3.6%. Recurrent consumer spending (RCS) net bookings fell 9% Y/Y and were 81% of total net bookings.
b. Profits
Beat EBITDA estimate by 7.5%.
Beat $0.97 EPS estimate by $0.03.
Beat -$0.86 GAAP EPS estimate by $0.57 & beat GAAP net income guide by $95M.
c. Balance Sheet
$1.67B cash, equivalents & short-term investments.
$2.52B debt.
Basic share count +1.4% Y/Y.
d. Guidance & Valuation
Q4 net bookings guide missed estimates by 2.9%.
Reiterated fiscal 2027 net bookings guide, which missed estimates by 5.4%.
Raised fiscal 2027 GAAP revenue guide by 1.0% & EBITDA guide by 2.9%.
GTA VI launches on November 19th.
TTWO trades for 24x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 68% this fiscal year and by 49% next fiscal year.
7. On Holdings (ONON) – Brief Earnings Snapshot
a. Demand
Slightly beat revenue estimate & met constant currency growth estimate.
b. Profits
Beat EBITDA estimate by 27% (1% beat ex-tariff refunds).
Beat EBIT estimate by 41.5% (3.4% ex-tariff refunds).
Beat CHF (Swiss Franc) 0.40 EPS estimate by CHF 0.14 (CHF 0.02 ex-tariff refunds).
c. Balance Sheet
CHF 1.34B cash & equivalents
1.8% Y/Y dilution
Inventory +30% Y/Y.
d. Guidance & Valuation
Reiterated low-20% CC 2026 revenue growth guide which met estimates.
Raised 2026 GPM guide from 65%+ to 67.5% (66% ex-tariff refunds).
Raised 19.75% EBITDA margin guide to 21.25% (19.75% ex-tariffs).
ONON trades for 17x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 86% this year (helped by tariff refunds) and by 13% next year.
8. Rubrik (RBRK) – New Product Reach
Rubrik is pushing deeper into the software development world with new protection for GitHub and Azure DevOps. It works a lot like Rubrik’s other resilience and recovery offerings. If someone gets in without permission and starts messing with source code, pipelines or other assets, Rubrik quickly flags it and maps the digital blast radius. From there, it “rewinds” only the malicious changes, while keeping all of the legitimate work developers did in the meantime. It’s also expanding backup coverage to code reviews, project boards and documentation.
With all of this, developers avoid downtime, disruption and headaches, while Rubrik gains another surface for its data resilience offering. That means more cross-sell opportunities and a longer demand runway. As we talk about elsewhere in enterprise software, the proliferation of agents means a lot more code being written and a lot more data being processed. That directly supports demand for the Rubrik platform, and it’s fully taking advantage by tailoring its products to AI-forward environments.
9. Headlines
Meta just launched Muse Ember. It’s a smaller AI model and more than 10x cheaper than Muse Spark 1.3 on input tokens. About 40x cheaper for output tokens. The barbell approach continues. It’s pushing to create best in class models for the most compute intensive and complex use cases. It’s undercutting leaders to gain market share for everything else too. They want it all. There’s also more coming out about meta building an enterprise AI sales team. But that’s not new. Just media publications reporting it so it’s showing up as headlines again on social media. We know they’re building this. That’s why they hired CJ Desai.
SoFiUSD went live on Polygon this week (also live on Ethereum and Solana).
Google raised $3.8B in Hong Kong and Singapore debt markets.
Reddit launched “Reddit Reviews” which better utilizes data from community discussions to create product reviews and other summaries.
ServiceNow launched a new AI-powered tool to help companies move onto its Customer Relationship Management (CRM) product. This has been a big focus area and a success story, which is why they keep infusing more agent-based utility into the offering. Anything they can do to make it easier to migrate to NOW’s platform is a big plus considering they view their CRM as best-in-class.
