Table of Contents

1. Big Bank Earnings & Credit Data

I realize big banks aren’t the most exciting investments to a lot of you. At the same time, these companies have a grasp on the economy that is broad, unrivaled and valuable.

a. JP Morgan (JPM)

Results:

J.P. Morgan missed revenue estimates by 2%. It also missed $5.91 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.34.

Important Call Quotes:

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“The U.S. economy continued to be fueled by strong business investment and ongoing consumer spending… I think times are pretty good now with high volumes and high asset prices and fairly low credit losses and all that… However, large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions continue to shift under the surface. These forces may be manageable, but we remain prepared for a wide range of outcomes.” – CEO Jamie Dimon

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“We're tightening up a little bit on credit. I think some of the credit terms have gotten a little bit loose. And you've heard us talk about that before and other people, a little too much PIK, a little too weak covenants, a little too much priming good assets, little too much, pushing on it. We just don't feel you have to chase that kind of stuff anymore.” – CEO Jamie Dimon

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“What we see in the current data and what's been true, I would say, for the last few years is that the consumer has been quite resilient in the face of a number of headwinds that under different circumstances you might have expected would present a challenge… Fundamentally, the picture is pretty simple. The consumer is currently very healthy, primarily because of a healthy labor market. But the Central Bank needs things to cool off and that involves an aggressive extended rate cycle, almost by definition, that's going to involve higher unemployment, which will produce weaker consumer credit results.” – CFO Jeremy Barnum

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“I would say that the corporate credit outlook is currently pretty stable. But obviously, there are issues out there, and we'll have to see how those flow through the performance of our borrowers, energy prices, fuel inputs, higher rates.” – CFO Jeremy Barnum

Credit Data:

Important credit lingo:

  • Delinquencies (DQ) are loans that are past due by a number of days. Delinquency (DQ) rates are the leading indicator for credit health.

  • Net charge-offs are loans that a creditor decides won’t be repaid and will instead become losses, net of any recoveries. Net charge-off (NCO) rate is annualized net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans. This is a lagging credit indicator compared to the leading delinquency indicator. Reserve levels refer to the amount earmarked for covering expected losses for the overall portfolio. Reserves are the balance-sheet stock of those funds; provisions are the income-statement expense recorded each period that builds reserves.

    • Higher expected delinquencies and NCOs contribute to reserve building.

  • When provisions exceed net charge-offs, the allowance for credit losses grows. This is the overall balance of funds set aside to cover expected losses.

Commentary on the data below:

I think the data meshes very well with the “consumer resilience” commentary quoted from Barnum below. Everything looks quite good from a credit health point of view.

Valuation:

JPM trades for 13x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 25% this year and by 2% next year.

b. Bank of America (BAC)

Results:

BAC missed revenue estimates by 2.2%. It also missed $0.91 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.20. Excluding a $1.2B regulatory settlement charge, the miss would have been $0.03.

Important Call Quotes:

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“We believe that Bank of America, our clearest economic signal comes from the daily activity of the 70 million clients and thousands of businesses that bank with us. And the message has been consistent. Consumers continue to spend with year-to-date money movement up 5% from 2025, and you can see that on Slide 3, and that's similar to what it was for the third quarter and similar to what has shown up so far in early October.” – CEO Brian Moynihan

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“Our business clients invested and hired selectively. They supported solid growth in jobs and wages across various income levels in our customer base.” – CEO Brian Moynihan

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“Consumer credit improved in line with expectations… Commercial criticized assets declined to their lowest level on a rate basis since 4Q '19 and nonperforming loans also fell from Q2. Together, these trends continue to point to a healthy consumer and commercial client base and credit quality.”  – CFO Alastair Borthwick

❝

“At Investor Day last year, we shared an expectation we would deliver 5% to 7% NII growth in the medium term. And, during the course of 2026, we've raised that guidance first to 7% and then more recently to 8%, we still expect to hit that full year revised NII growth guidance of approximately 8%. And for 2027, we currently expect full year growth of NII to be 8% or more higher than 2026 and again, higher than our original 5% to 7% range.” – CFO Alastair Borthwick

Credit Data:

Just like for JP Morgan, Bank of America credit data looks excellent across the board.

Economic OutlooK:

Valuation:

Bank of America trades for 10x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 17% in each of the next two years.

2. ASML – Brief Earnings Snapshot

Results:

  • Missed revenue estimate by 0.5% & beat guidance by 1.4%.

  • Beat 56.1% GPM estimate by 140 bps & beat guidance by 150 bps.

  • Beat EBIT estimate by 5.3% & beat guidance by 5.5%.

  • Beat €10.71 EPS estimate by €2.22.

Balance Sheet:

  • €12.7B in cash, equivalents and short-term investments. 

  • €1.96B debt.

  • Share count fell by 1% Y/Y.

Guidance & Valuation:

  • Q4 revenue guidance beat estimates by 5%.

  • Q4 GPM guidance beat 55.5% estimates by 150 bps.

  • Q4 EBIT guidance beat estimates by 8%.

3. Axon (AXON) – Federal Momentum

Axon announced a series of federal government contract wins indicating its rising presence and traction in that important segment. It added 22,000 body-worn cameras and digital evidence management licenses during 2026. It also inked a counter drone platform contract with the Department of Homeland Security and sold 1,600 new TASER 10 devices to the Department of Veterans Affairs. 

Across numerous product categories, Axon is starting to win a larger share of deal flow, which means larger revenue chunks and greater proof of concept than selling these solutions to a local police department or a retailer. While the federal segment has been a tad volatile over the last several quarters, it looks to be turning into another company strength, joining fantastic momentum across international and enterprise as structural growth levers to capitalize on for many years to come.

4. ServiceNow (NOW) – AI Passport

ServiceNow introduced AI Passport this week. This provides secure IDs that AI agents must present at runtime to prove what they're authorized to do. If an agent drifts outside its scope, the system can redirect it, restrict it, or kill it on the spot. All of this runs inside ServiceNow's AI Control Tower or its AI command center that issues the passports, watches agent activity, and keeps the record. These products in tandem, alongside its AI-powered front-end from the Moveworks acquisition and its security business fortified by Armis and Veza form its push to become the central dashboard for enterprise AI work.

5. Headlines & Macro

  • Significant AI credit concerns stemming from ongoing inflation, bond yields and ongoing cycle longevity debates led to credit default swaps hitting new highs as the costs to guard against potential losses kept rising. For context, CoreWeave debt (for one single tranche) hit a 15% coupon rate on the open market this week. This all caused a lot of the names in the space to be punished, although software also had an ugly end to the week as well.

  • The CPI was a tad hotter than expected this month while the PPI was far hotter than expected. Despite this, rate hike odds for this month's meeting fell from 17.7% last week to 15.5% this week.

  • Shopify introduced shopping with agents through its Shop Pay checkout accelerator.

  • ServiceNow was rumored to be acquiring an AI native called Decagon but said those rumors were false.

  • Amazon introduced two AI devices this week. The Alexa Tablet, which comes with Alexa+and new reasoning capabilities, and new AI wearables that listen to conversations (when you want them to) and create things like to-do lists from them.

  • Starbucks denied recent Chipotle M&A rumors.

  • Oppenheimer channel checks point to outperformance for ServiceNow this quarter.

  • RBC channel checks point to outperformance for Shopify this quarter.

  • Snowflake and Lumen are partnering to make enterprise data analytics more simple.

  • Meta debuted its Muse Wonder models that are scoring as well,  or better, than every single model except Anthropic’s very best product. The company continues to rapidly climb up the leaderboard.

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