Table of Contents

1. Oracle (ORCL) – Brief Earnings Snapshot

a. Demand

  • Oracle beat revenue estimates by 1% and beat 28% constant currency (CC) growth guidance with 30% Y/Y CC growth.

  • Cloud was 1% ahead of estimates. 61% CC cloud growth beat its 60% CC growth guidance.

  • Software revenue was 2% light vs. expectations and hardware at 16% ahead. 

  • Remaining performance obligations (RPO; backlog) also beat estimates by 3.5%.

b. Profits

  • EBIT beat estimates by 4.4%.

  • $1.92 in EPS beat estimates by $0.17 and beat guidance by $0.18.

  • -$5.4B in FCF was actually nearly $5B better than expected.

c. Balance Sheet

  • $37B cash & equivalents.

  • $125B total debt.

  • 3.1% Y/Y dilution.

d. Guidance & Valuation

For the full year, it raised revenue guidance from $90B to $90B+ and boosted EPS guidance ever-so-slightly from $8.05 to $8.10.

Oracle trades for 18x EPS (again no free cash flow). EPS is expected to grow by 7% this year and by 35% next year.

2. Meta (META) – Agents

Meta Muse is the company’s new consumer agent grounded in dense customer data profiles to better understand goals and desires. It can work behind the scenes on your behalf to complete a task, finish a piece of work or schedule an upcoming week. To ease inevitable privacy concerns from some, data and credentials are stored on a secure virtual machine with a separate dedicated agent to verify every single request for risk before approving.

“The model, the Muse harness, deterministic code and an ensemble of classifiers work together to detect threats like prompt injections. These systems work to quarantine threats and prevent them from entering the model's context window.”

CEO Mark Zuckerberg

While this all sounds nice, there’s encouragingly some promising early demand news pointing to Meta being on a great path. The early Meta Muse usage blew past internal expectations for Meta.

It already had the world-class distribution full of trillions of interactions to reimagine and add value to. And now? It has a promising new agent offered as a standalone app that’s shattering their usage goals & in the top 5 on the App Store. They’ve already built this directly into WhatsApp. If things keep going this well, they will be big parts of all other core Meta apps too. So many high margin revenue opportunities will be layered into their existing experience over time.

Need to book an appointment? Send an email? Schedule your life? Or fill out a form? That’s what Muse is for, with intuitive ways to monetize heavier usage via $20 & $100 monthly tiers. These early learnings should also provide highly valuable data to inform that roadmap and give Meta a better chance of shaping it in ways that more quickly appeal to users (the benefit of getting to debut compelling innovation across several different scaled products). 

So now? Crystal clear evidence of using AI to make core app engagement & monetization better… building a paid model business as its LLMs shoot up leaderboards & undercutting competition on token costs… successfully scaling the beginning of its army of agents… both across consumers and enterprises.

Speaking of which, Meta just announced acquiring Stilla AI. This will be used for its business agent to help merchants with customer service, pursuit of optimal growth, and transactions across its core apps. This should accelerate product development, build on the million merchants who are already using these tools and fuel the fire. They were founded just two years ago with only a little funding to date so this deal is inevitably very small. I’m a fan.

So many ways to make this hefty AI infrastructure spending productive. Meta has a very strange way of showing they can’t monetize or win in AI.

3. ServiceNow (NOW) – CEO Interview with Goldman Sachs & CFO Interview with Citi

Vibe Coding?

While the vibe coding disruption risk narrative has mostly died down, McDermott still got the question. The answer hasn’t changed. At the center of each part of ServiceNow’s immensely broad platform… across IT, data infrastructure and security… is the Configuration Management Database (CMDB). This provides an organized and giant web that guides 100B total workflows and shows how everything in a company connects to each other. It offers a complete view of permissible relationships and a level of enterprise understanding that virtually nobody can match. It’s this understanding that uplifts the raw potential of an AI model to (as we so often discuss) turn probabilistic potential into reliably certain outcomes.

ServiceNow has all of the apps, data and integrations needed to enable agents to complete complex work. It has the “AI Control Tower” that uses this holistic view and offers a complete idea of permissible and shadow AI where vibe-coded alternatives can’t. It has an agentic assistant to help guide customers through these capable tools and optimize value creation. And? It offers this while integrating related agents right into CMDB and modern vector search tools, providing  a reliable and concrete sense of what they’re actually allowed to do. For icing on the cake, this service in aggregate is provided for a lot less money and a lot less headache than companies trying to “just vibe code” the experience. Most are understandably choosing to focus on their core value proposition and leave this tedious work to ServiceNow.

Recent Customer Engagement:

Mastantuono was energized by the quality and cadence of recent customer engagements. In their prospective client conversations, hesitation tied to customers experimenting with vibe coding to replace software platforms has greatly eased. ServiceNow’s world-class suite of productivity and work optimization apps, data infrastructure tools and cybersecurity modules all continue to resonate. Furthermore, these successful products are pairing perfectly with ServiceNow’s overarching AI asset visibility and orchestration platform. Because? Agents need great data and tools to do complex work just like people do. ServiceNow’s core platform provides all of that in one place. This formula is amplified by abundant partner integrations, assuring that customers pick the cheapest models for specific parts of workloads and can use popular coding agents alongside their ServiceNow deployments. It is positioning itself as the everything platform in next-gen enterprise software. While many companies push for that label, NOW comes as close to embodying it with high-quality apps as any other competitor. And that’s why customer engagements are going so well.

  • NOW has more than 50 customers paying more than $1M per year for its new AI products.

Sources of AI Momentum & Potential Upside to the $30B-$32B 2030 Guidance:

ServiceNow sees a massive opportunity to steadily “agentify” (automate with AI models, harnesses and agents) workloads across all IT asset and service management businesses, its data platforms and everything else it provides. Much like the ongoing multi-decade cloud transformation that has fueled structural growth, this should provide the next structural growth tailwind to join the cloud migration opportunity. Agentifying workloads means making them far more efficient and scalable, which naturally supports overall platform consumption and ServiceNow monetization (thanks to its consumption/subscription hybrid model). Productivity tends to yield more activity, as companies discover incremental growth and innovation that emerge with more attractive returns. Specifically, companies that use ServiceNow agents for various workflows end up delivering a 4.5x revenue uplift vs. the beginning of the term… far higher than a typical non-AI deal.

ServiceNow’s platform, I think, is well positioned to capture an attractive amount of that emerging market. Mastantuono agrees, as she called the prospect of the AI business outperforming current multi-year forecasts and enabling an overall growth acceleration “reasonable.” The long-term guidance offered at its investor day a few months ago was again called prudent.

Near-term AI product priorities include:

  • Adding more service desk agent specialists with broader capabilities.

  • Releasing products and monetization structures that appeal more to smaller companies.

  • Rapid Growth.

Current M&A Interests:

No big blockbuster deals are currently in the appetite for ServiceNow. They are, however, interested in adding bolt-on agentic capabilities that allow them to go to market with new apps and tools faster than doing so organically. Along these lines, they just purchased a company called Sweep. Sweep built agents that track and analyze CRM metadata to fix issues as they pop up for customers on ServiceNow, Salesforce, HubSpot and several other platforms. They turn decades of jumbled and unstructured mess into valuable insight that will help customers uncover new business optimization strategies. If a customer alert didn’t trigger properly, a sales rep isn’t courting leads or some marketing channel is not working as well as it could, Sweep unlocks actionable awareness. 

Generally speaking, this will help ServiceNow and its clients extract value from the massive base of data already on its platform. These tools, along with Sweep's deep HubSpot and Salesforce integrations, should greatly expedite full CRM migrations to ServiceNow's platform. Specifically, ServiceNow sees these occurring in 3-6 months instead of 12-18 because of the purchase. Finally, considering this is small (estimated $100M-$300M deal) and the product was already being actively used on the NOW platform, integration work should be easy. 

Security Positioning:

ServiceNow’s budding security division (turbo-charged by Veza and Armis M&A) is providing new revenue opportunities which complete its workflow chain. ServiceNow's platform already had the resolution piece via deep experience in tracking security and IT issues and spearheading the repairs. Now, with Armis providing asset visibility and Veza providing identity and access controls, they can play a much bigger role in detection and alerts without requiring partners. Even though M&A was a big help, they already had $1B in organic annualized security revenue and it’s also great to see them growing that business so quickly post-acquisitions. We should not shrug off how meaningful it is that this company now has a top-10 security business by revenue (and outgrowing the other 9). Customers were yearning for a workflow automation and data infrastructure partner to integrate security too… and they now are in a meaningful way.

More:

  • ServiceNow will set price to value, which provides ample opportunity to flex pricing power. Results such as reducing Robinhood manual IT service management case load by 70% with ServiceNow provide a ton of cost savings for the customer, and NOW can easily justify taking a piece of it. They’re focused on utilizing forward deployed engineers (FDEs), customer workshops and system integrator partnerships to play a hands-on role in enjoying great outcomes. Starting to sound a lot like Palantir.

  • Ubiquitous integrations with important players and a modern, open platform make integration work easier for ServiceNow than others. They don’t have to rewrite a mountain of code or rip and replace existing systems; they can immediately start offering most services in their tech stack.

4. SoFi (SOFI) CFO Interview with Goldman

To read a review of this interview, upgrade below.

The rest of the article also includes Snowflake, Shopify, Axon, Reddit, Alphabet, Lemonade and Uber investor conference reviews. Finally, there’s a piece on a Nu Bank launch and one on interest rates.

Subscribers also get 40+ detailed earnings reviews per quarter, consistently thorough fundamental news and insight, access to a Discord room full of level-headed investors and my portfolio/performance.

logo

Subscribe to our premium content to read the rest.

Become a paying subscriber to get access to this post and a boatload of other subscriber-only content. Read the stock market newsletter read by Fortune 500 CEOs.

Upgrade

Reply

Avatar

or to participate