Welcome back to peak earnings season. It should be as interesting as always. Buckle up.

It has not been a fun few months for the enterprise software and consumer internet buckets where I primarily focus. There has been considerable volatility and multiple contraction, as share prices have fallen without forward estimates moving in tandem. 

If we’re operating on a quarterly or one-year time horizon, that’s obviously frustrating. But? If we’re trying to do this for years and years to come, this is exciting. It’s inevitable that my outperformance vs. the S&P will coincide with strings of underperformance like during Q4. This bout of underperformance has made world-class enterprise software names cheap for the first time in several years. It has allowed me to dip my toe in new names I thought I’d never get to buy. It has freed me to consolidate into proven winners as higher-quality software platforms prove they can use AI as an accelerant rather than a death sentence.

We’re entering an earnings season in which “better than feared” will do just fine for most of my companies. We are not heading into a season in which multiples have aggressively stretched, excitement has ballooned and risk/reward has deteriorated. Quite the opposite. I expect my holdings (generally speaking) to deliver demand and margin resilience that quells the currently loud skepticism on Wall Street. Sell-side channel checks have been mostly positive, while holiday shopping data was strong and economic data overall has been fine as well. Monetary accommodation is now flowing into the real economy as previous rate cuts take hold and the Fed bolsters liquidity rather than draining it.  I expect the “software is dying” opinion to quiet down and for the winners to keep winning. I expect 2026 guidance to be resilient, as companies see their demand trends tracking better than sentiment and know how much coordinated monetary/fiscal help is coming.