Table of Contents

a. Demand

  • Beat revenue estimate by 2.3% & beat guidance by 3.5%.

    • Beat $695.1M U.S. revenue estimate by 3.4%.

    • Missed $181.6M rest of world revenue estimate by 3.0%.

    • Beat $831.6M advertising revenue estimate by 1.9%.

    • Beat $45.4M other revenue estimate by 5.8%.

  • Missed daily active uniques (DAUq) estimate by 2.5%.

    • Missed U.S. DAUq estimate by 7%. 

    • Missed 79.9M rest of world DAUq estimate by 0.4%.

    • Missed 519.1M weekly active uniques (WAUq) estimate by 0.8%.

  • Beat average revenue per user (ARPU) estimate by 4.8%.

As seen below, most of the growth was again ARPU driven, as user growth was again lackluster (much more on this later). Encouragingly, this is not solely coming from higher ad load, which has a finite ceiling and a direct trade-off with consumer experience quality. Ad pricing growth was also very strong, as RDDT gets better at offering buyers the right product with the right targeting at the right time. It’s hard to do at massive scale in real time as users interact, but Reddit is now moving from novice to experienced veteran in this regard.

One more quick note. Leadership pointed to Meta ARPU being a lot higher than Reddit’s ($17.72 vs. $6.87) as evidence of the ARPU runway remaining very long. I think that's probably true in terms of a lot of runway remaining, but I don't think using Meta as the comparison is the best idea. Meta is a generational, once-in-a-lifetime company that has built a network effect and consumer habit that everyone in its space is envious of. They also have several massive apps that contribute to revenue per person. Not just one. This is not the company to compare financial trends to when deciding where they can go from here.

b. Profits & Margins

  • Beat 91.2% GPM estimate by 30 basis points (bps; 1 basis point = 0.01%).

  • Beat EBITDA estimate by 1.3% & beat guidance by 3%.

    • OpEx was 47% of revenue vs. 51% Y/Y. A lot of this continues to come from G&A-related leverage.

  • Missed 45.5% EBITDA margin estimate by 50 bps.

  • Beat $1.33 GAAP EPS estimate by $0.07.

  • Beat FCF estimate by 5%.

c. Balance Sheet

  • $3.03B in cash, equivalents & marketable securities.

  • No debt.

  • Diluted share count fell 0.4% Y/Y. It repurchased $100M in stock during the quarter.

d. Guidance & Valuation

  • Q4 revenue guidance missed estimates by 3%. That still represents about 40% Y/Y growth (compared to 70% Y/Y growth during Q4 2025).

  • EBITDA guidance missed estimates by 1%.

RDDT trades for 10x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 70% this year, 26% next year and 22% the year after that. It looks very cheap, but I also think there’s real risk to forward estimates if they can’t fix the stubborn user growth issue that has now plagued them for a few quarters.

e. Call & Letter

Subscribe below to read a review of the earnings call transcript and shareholder letter as well as my take on the quarter and investment.

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