1. Chipotle (CMG) – Earnings Review

a. Key Points

  • Somewhat underwhelming quarter doesn’t interrupt fantastic multi-year trends.

  • There was some traffic variability in December and the start of 2025. It remains confident in strong transaction growth for 2025.

  • In-store efficiency initiatives are working. 

  • Poised for faster international expansion in 2025.

b. Demand

Chipotle missed revenue estimates by 0.7%. 5.4% comparable (comp) store sales was thanks to 4% transaction growth and 1.4% average ticket price (ATP) growth. This compares to 6% comp store sales growth last quarter, with 3.3% transaction growth and 2.7% ATP growth. Last year, comp store sales rose 8.4% Y/Y thanks to 7.4% transaction growth and 1% ATP growth.

c. Profits & Margins

  • Missed GAAP EBIT estimates by 3.3%.

  • Beat 24.5% restaurant-level margin estimates by 30 bps.

  • Met $0.24 GAAP EPS estimates. GAAP EPS rose by 20% Y/Y. Tax rate was 24.4% vs. 26.2% Y/Y.

GAAP food, beverage and packaging delevereged by 70 bps to 30.4% of revenue due to its focus on larger portions and the successful brisket promotion. Avocado inflation was better than expected, as price step-ups were delayed a bit (still coming); dairy inflation was about as expected. Price hikes help offset a bit of this delevereging. GAAP G&A was 6.7% of revenue and stable Y/Y. On a non-GAAP basis, excluding some compensation and legal reserves, G&A rose by 3% Y/Y to greatly trail revenue growth and provide non-GAAP leverage. GAAP labor was 25.2% of revenue vs. 25.0% Y/Y due to California wage laws.

d. Balance Sheet

  • $748M in cash & equivalents.

  • $868M in long-term investments.

  • Diluted share count fell by about 1% Y/Y.

e. Guidance & Valuation

For the full year, 9% store growth and about 3% comparable sales growth guidance for 2025 leave us with about 12% revenue growth guidance for the year. This missed 13.3% growth estimates. If we instead assumed “low-to-mid single-digit” growth means 4% instead of 3%, then it would have only slightly missed estimates. This was partially related to lapping very successful releases in 2024, but there were more reasons that I’ll dig into in the next section.

Guidance doesn’t include any potential tariffs, while about 50% of its avocados and 2% of its total food costs come from Mexico. Note that about 90 basis points (bps; 1 basis point = 0.01%) of comp store sales growth will roll off in Q2 from lapping price increases. It hiked prices twice last year due to California wage laws, but expects to hike prices once at its typical 2% menu inflation rate. Finally, it sees the 2025 restaurant-level margin being better during the second half of the year and slightly more pressured during the first half of the year. This is related to investments in larger portions last year following some consumer pushback. These investments will weigh on restaurant level margin by 60 bps in 2025 (front-half weighted). It expects to claw some of this margin back towards the end of the year. More on why later.

Chipotle trades for 45× 2025 EPS estimates. EPS is expected to compound at an 18% clip for the next two years after estimates fell a bit following this report. It remains confident in its path to 7,000 North American restaurants, $4 million in AUV and more operating leverage. It sees input cost inflation in the “low single-digit range” for Q1 and the full year.

It remains confident in multi-year mid-single digit comparable store sales growth. 

f. Call & Release

December Traffic & 2025 Comp Sales:

Chipotle called out a bit of traffic weakness in the month of December. Things didn’t sharply sour, but trends got just a bit worse. The company still delivered 4% Y/Y transaction growth thanks to continued throughput gains and overarching operating momentum. Still, the 4% would have been higher without this softening. It attributed this to holiday timing, as Christmas and New Year’s both were during the week. 

Traffic weakness continued into 2025, with “more volatile comps so far this year,” for different reasons. Leadership seems to have responded to this heightened volatility with uncertainty, which is always the correct thing to do when projecting future numbers. Weather patterns, a later return to school/work and a small LA wildfire impact have all hit comp sales trends by a full 4 points so far this year. Specifically, transactions fell 2% Y/Y in January, with the underlying trends up 2% Y/Y. This is why it now expects flat Y/Y transaction growth for Q1 and is a source of the first half restaurant-level margin pressure. More reasons why the first half should be worse than the second half:

  • Strong product launches are expected to help comp sales during the second half.

  • A 1-point headwind from Leap Year in Q1.

Run a Great Company with Great Food & Great Stores:

Supporting happy employees and delivering a great product for customers are both vital to running great stores. Along these lines, Chipotle continues to enjoy lower general manager (GM) turnover, which means lower disruption, better customer experience and a more successful company. In 2024, GM turnover neared an all-time low for the company, and 85% of all restaurant management roles were internally filled. It even promoted 3 new regional vice presidents who all started as crew members. As a result of this internal career mobility culture, throughput relatedly improved by another two entrees per peak 15-minute period; it reached its service goal during the quarter. Again… happier employees with more room for career advancement will work harder. That harder work will lead to a better guest experience. That better guest experience will fuel more growth. This is the formula Chipotle continues to effectively execute.

“Operationally, I feel like we've never been on better footing.”

CEO Scott Boatwright

Technology and AI are key pieces of managing the omni-channel experience for Chipotle. Most recently, it began developing an AI assistant. This detects where a customer’s usage pattern deviates from norms in a way that would lead to churn. It then nudges these customers with sweetened offers and suggestions to get them to convert.

Innovation to Perfect Throughput & Help Workers:

Chipotle continues to “modernize back of house operations” to perfect workflows and employee experiences. Part of this is simplifying meal prep timing, which has helped improve on-time prep. Another piece of this is upgrading Chipotle’s food prep equipment to make things easier for its team members. The company is implementing produce slicing machines in all restaurants to diminish tedious labor requirements and make jobs more enjoyable. This creates a more consistent, expeditiously-assembled end product to bolster throughput further (while maintaining quality). This investment is expected to partially offset the 60 bps hit from investing in larger portions last year. It remains fully confident in offsetting this entire headwind by the end of 2025. That confidence is via things like its new slicer and also supply chain efficiencies. Yet another reason why 2nd half margins are expected to be stronger.

“I think it is kind of a first half second half type of story. And a lot of that has to do with the portion investment and the fact that we believe that we can offset that investment in the second half of the year… Our goal this year is to drive positive transactions and flow that through to where we would see incremental 2025 restaurant level margin.”

CFO Adam Rymer

“So the produce slicer will save labor. We plan to redeploy some of that labor and capture part of it. How much is undecided at present.”

CEO Scott Boatwright

It’s also testing these slicers in tandem with its dual-sided grill (faster meat prep), three-pan rice cooker (prep rice right on the make-line) and dual-vat fryer (faster chip prep) all in the same unit. So far so good on this experiment, as Chipotle will now add these machines to every new store opening. It sounds like it will eventually retrofit existing units as well. It continues to develop its “autocado” (automated avocado slicer and pitter with a great name) and the next iteration of its digital make workflow. It’s early for both of these initiatives but it remains “optimistic.”

Marketing & Limited Time Offers (LTOs):

CMG’s leadership called its marketing playbook from 2024 “exceptional.” All of its brand campaigns delivered or over-delivered on desired results. Both LTOs (chicken al pastor and brisket) “surpassed expectations” and both drove “incremental transactions & spend.” The company also restarted its second partnership with the popular running app Strava. It thinks all of this positive work helped it gain momentum in key national brand categories such as ingredient quality, value, health and more. Looking ahead, its chipotle honey chicken test has been an obvious success. It was its best ever LTO for taste and will be coming to more stores soon. This was not included in 2025 guidance, so any materially incremental uplift from this launch should mean upside.

Grow the Store Footprint:

Chipotle again opened roughly 300 stores during the year, with 80% of those having a Chipotle drive-thru lane (Chipotlane). 1,000 of its stores now have these Chipotlanes, which continue to be overwhelmingly positive for driving incremental store traffic. It’s also a great product from a service standpoint, with customers moving from ordering to picking up in an average of 30 seconds. For context, Starbucks struggles to get items delivered to drive-thru customers in under 4 minutes.

Across the globe, it now has 85 international restaurants, with 55 in Canada, 27 in Europe and 3 in the Middle East. 2025 will be the year of accelerating openings across Canada and the Middle East, as well as “proving out the economic model in Europe” to set the table for more growth in the years ahead. It had been struggling with margin in Europe, but things have “measurably improved so much that it’s now looking at site development in specific areas of Western Europe.”

“We're taking a look at a couple of other partnerships as we speak today around the world.”

CEO Scott Boatwright

g. Take

This was not Chipotle’s best quarter, but I think the holiday timing, Leap Year and weather-related weakness are actually the reasons. I do not think this is at all a matter of bad execution or a weakening brand, just the same issues many others flagged to explain an underwhelming traffic start to 2025. I think it’s likely that traffic trends normalize and Chipotle can use a prudent 2025 guide to beat and raise multiple times throughout the year. While losing Brian Niccol was certainly not ideal, the new team seems more than capable of carrying the torch and pushing Chipotle through its next phase of global growth. When zooming out, we’re left with a margin-accretive compounder with a beloved brand and a long runway. We’re left with a company poised to expand across the globe in the coming years… with a product that has resonated everywhere it has been introduced thus far. These somewhat underwhelming results don’t make me think any less fondly of this company.

2. Shopify (SHOP) – Earnings Review

My Shopify Deep Dive can be found here. Most of that is still current, except for the financials, which are updated in this review. A review of its most recent Investor Day can also be found here (section 4).

a. Key Points

  • Solid quarter and fine guidance.

  • New growth vectors are all performing very well.

  • Rapid pace of leverage to slow in 2025 as expected. It’s leaning back into growth.

b. Demand

  • Beat gross merchandise value (GMV) estimates by 1.6%.

    • Offline GMV rose 26% Y/Y.

    • Delivered its 6th straight quarter of 100%+ Y/Y business-to-business (B2B) GMV growth.

  • Beat gross payments volume (GPV) estimates by 1.2%.

  • Beat revenue estimates by 2.9% & beat mid-to-high 20% revenue growth guidance.

    • Merchant solutions revenue beat by 3.3%. 

    • Subscription revenue beat by 2.1%.

    • Missed monthly recurring revenue (MRR) estimates by 2.5%.

    • Revenue outperformance was attributed to over-indexing North American volumes. It has more of its products in North America than elsewhere, so more volume here comes with a higher take rate and more revenue.

  • Shopify estimates that it has 12% of the U.S. e-commerce market share vs. about 10% in 2023. Still under 1% of global retail.

c. Profits & Margins

  • Missed gross profit margin (GPM) estimate by 70 bps; beat gross profit dollar guidance by 2.5%.

    • Merchant solutions GPM met estimates. Subscription GPM missed.

  • Beat free cash flow (FCF) estimates by 7%. Beat 20.8% FCF margin guidance by 90 basis points (bps; 1 basis point = 0.01%). Stock compensation was 1.7% lower than it guided to.

  • Beat EBIT estimates by 5%. Operating expenses (OpEx) came in at 31.5% of revenue vs. 32.5% in its guidance.

  • Excluding the benefits of equity investments, Shopify beat $0.34 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.01. GAAP net income margin excluding the noisy impact of equity investments was 16.3% vs. 15.9% Q/Q & 15.7% Y/Y.

The subscription solutions GPM miss was driven by a ramp in cloud and infrastructure hosting costs to support all of the scaling on its platform. It does not “expect this to have as much of an impact going forward.” The decline in merchant solutions GPM was related to lapping non-cash revenues from partnerships in 2024 and some impact from its expanding PayPal relationship. Operating expenses (OpEx) equated to 32% of revenue vs. 52% of revenue just 2 years ago. Headcount again fell Y/Y. Its transaction loans and losses rose to 3% of revenue vs. 2% Y/Y, but this was solely related to higher credit volume. Loss ratios for these products “remained within a consistent range.” Outperforming revenue was the largest driver of outperforming FCF.

d. Balance Sheet

  • $5.5B in cash & equivalents.

  • $700M in long-term investments.

  • Diluted share count rose by 0.6% Y/Y.

“We think we're at a point now where we continue to grow the business, both merchant based, GMV revenue, and leave our headcount fairly flat.”

CFO Jeff Hoffmeister

e. Guidance & Valuation

For next quarter, Shopify’s mid-20% revenue growth guidance met or beat 24% revenue growth estimates. It expects gross profit dollar growth to slightly trail this revenue growth performance, which implies modest Y/Y GPM contraction. That roughly met estimates. It expects a mid-teens FCF margin, which roughly missed 17% margin estimates. Finally, it expects OpEx to be 41.5% of revenue, representing 550 bps of leverage, which is about in line with expectations.

Shopify trades for about 75x 2025 FCF. Shopify recently inflected to profitability, so I used a gross profit chart below. Estimates could modestly decline and boost that multiple by a turn or two. FCF is expected to compound at a 28% clip for the next two years.

f. Call & Release

2024 in Review:

As Harley often does in his Q4 remarks, he walked us through a lot of what Shopify accomplished over the last year. It added more product catalog variants and scalability while adding no-code customization to seamlessly include loyalty programs. It launched business bank accounts with favorable merchant working capital dynamics and added Shopify Tax to more countries across Europe. It infused GenAI work into Shopify Inbox to help merchants automate customer service and kept investing in its GenAI assistant called Sidekick.

It rounded out its offline product suite with tools like ship-to-store, custom product bundle discounts and order drafts. It expanded its point of sale (POS) terminal to 8 more countries and added local currency subscriptions and payouts across parts of Europe and Japan. It incorporated Klarna as a Shopify Payments option in some markets. As a reminder, Shopify Payments is a native payment gateway for merchants, and a processor via partnerships.

In terms of partnerships, Roblox named Shopify as its first commerce partner; Google added a Shopify and YouTube shopping integration; PayPal deepened its Shopify Payments processing partnership; it launched its first AI search tool with Perplexity and also added a new Oracle for Enterprise partnership. Shopify also signed UPS as a global carrier to augment its Managed Markets cross-border product.

Finally, it now has 16,000 apps on its app store vs. 13,000 Y/Y as well as 675 apps created via Built for Shopify (apps that solve especially convenient use cases and receive more promotion). Disruptors and entrenched incumbents are all lining up to work more closely with Shopify.

While all of this is nice, it’s especially encouraging because it coincides with such stellar fundamental momentum. This quarter marked its 7th straight period of 25%+ Y/Y pro-forma revenue growth and its 6th straight period of 20%+ GMV growth. This quarter marked its fastest rate of GMV growth since the pandemic, while it bucked macro softening trends in Europe to deliver 30%+ growth there too. In just 2 years, it has raised its FCF margin from 5% to over 21%, and delivered 6 straight quarters of a 10%+ FCF margin. Shopify has been on a mission to cut all redundant costs, operate with surgical precision and to optimize for productivity. Because of the high-quality, immensely sticky, always-improving nature of its platform, that has meant exploding margins AND accelerating growth. Special combination. Special company.

Q4 Customer Wins to Highlight the Great Momentum:

Shopify added BarkBox, Champion, David’s Bridal, Reitmans, Warner Music Group and Goop to its roster of North American merchants this quarter. Reebok, BarkBox and several other recent wins are already live. It also added a large window covering company called Hunter Douglas and a 40-year-old luxury brand in Europe’s 70 POS locations (Karl Lagerfeld). Shopify also deepened its relationship with FC Barcelona beyond its online presence. I offer this diverse batch of examples to highlight how broad-ranging Shopify’s merchant wins are across industries. This is not just direct-to-consumer disruptors opting into Shopify. It’s those brands and established brands in every industry.

“This diversity isn't just impressive. It proves that Shopify is the most compelling choice for any business looking to grow quickly, reliably, and at scale. No matter your industry, we have you covered.”

Shopify President Harley Finkelstein

Shopify Payments & Shop Pay:

Shop Pay is Shopify’s consumer-facing checkout accelerator tucked into Shopify Payments. It’s designed to get customers from cart-to-close in 2 clicks.

As a reminder, Commerce Components by Shopify (CCS) is its à la carte-style product selling geared towards large enterprises. It allows customers to pick and choose whatever products they want, which lowers buyer friction compared to locking them into bundles with tools they won’t even need. Interestingly, CCS is helping Shop Pay turn into another top-of-funnel merchant growth tool for the company. Everlane, the first company to purchase the Shop Pay component under this new format, has been extending its partnership with Shopify since opting into this tool. Aldo, Sperry, Call It Spring and their 400+ retail locations are moving all online and offline operations to Shopify. And? That started with a purchase of the Shop Pay component. GameStop and Crocs just signed up for this component. Yet another compelling way for Shopify to easily win new merchants, delight them and then sell them more. 

Why is this working so well? Consumer preference. On Shopify-powered sites, Shop Pay GMV is 2x higher than the next highest checkout accelerator; Shop Pay generated rapid 50% Y/Y growth on a large base. Its data shows buyers explicitly seeking out Shop Pay and abandoning carts if it’s not there and, as it often reminds us, it’s the highest converting checkout accelerator on the market. This provides concrete value in terms of attracting and closing more buyers… and so making merchants more money. That’s why it’s working.

Shop Pay was 41% of total gross payments volume (GPM) for the quarter as it crossed 200 million users. As Shop Pay is used for more of its payments volume, take rate and margins rise. GPV as a percentage of GMV was 62% vs. 58% Y/Y as Shopify Payments continues to win. As a reminder, payments proliferation is a GPM headwind, but not an EBIT or FCF margin headwind, as OpEx intensity is quite low for this product. Like with Shop Pay, higher GPV penetration means revenue and profit growth can outpace volume growth, as it’s taking a larger role in facilitating this GMV.

2025 Themes & Vague Guidance:

“As we close another year, I've honestly never been more excited by what we've achieved and how it's positioning us for 2025.”

Shopify President Harley Finkelstein

2025 will be a year of continuation for Shopify following a stellar 2023 and 2024. It will be about continued rapid product iteration to obsessively strip complexity out of every Shopify workflow. It called this “nailing to basics,” or simply continuing to work as hard as it can to ensure merchant success. That success means more volume and a more successful Shopify. I love when interests are aligned. Next, it will shockingly embrace AI, with a focus on goal-oriented software (Agentic AI) to automate increasingly complex and multi-step workflows. It wants Shopify SideKick (virtual assistant) and Shopify Magic (automated storefront and catalog optimization) to take even more headaches out of running a business to let merchants focus on growth. More of the same. Both of these things should contribute to its third objective of efficient growth. It’s gearing up for another year of rapid expansion and wants to accelerate presence across Europe and Japan. Offline and large enterprises will continue to be priorities as well.

While Shopify didn’t offer formal 2025 guidance, it did give us a few thoughts on its approach to the year. Shopify expects to greatly slow the pace of operating leverage in 2025, following rapid margin expansion since 2022. It does not expect FCF margin to begin contracting again, but thinks the pace of improvement there will be much more gradual in 2025. Why? Because there are “simply too many compelling growth opportunities ahead.” It has earned the right to go pursue these opportunities because it has gotten its margin profile to such a better place. Now it wants to capture all of the low-hanging fruit it sees there for the taking and will shift the balance back to a growth mindset. We’ve heard very similar ideas from Spotify, SoFi and many other companies this quarter. Rates are falling… time to invest.

“We believe the free cash flow margin profile that we have achieved in 2024 strikes the right balance between profitability and investing in building the best products for our merchants. We aim to maintain this level of cash flow profitability rather than optimizing for further margin expansion in the near term. There are simply too many compelling growth opportunities ahead. It’s simply the right thing to do… we’ll still deliver a profit level we are proud of and can maintain without impacting future growth.”

CFO Jeff Hoffmeister

Free Trials:

Shopify will move to three month free trials and away from one month for all plans. It had been experimenting with this, and is now confident this change will lower churn and raise lifetime value. Merchants need more time to experiment with the platform and understand how valuable it truly is. Shopify is determined to give them that time. Note that this also led to MRR weakness and the miss for that metric. Between this modest subscription revenue growth headwind and also lapping price hikes (none expected this year), it expects merchant solutions growth to re-surpass subscription solutions growth. That should be a modest GPM headwind in 2025, which was expected.

Offline and Business to Business (B2B):

Ernst and Young came out with an interesting study on Shopify’s POS suite vs. the competition. According to the firm, Shopify lowers total cost of ownership by 22% and speeds up POS implementation by 20%. This is helping drive brisk 26% Y/Y offline revenue growth and 3 wins in Asia Pacific worth 320+ locations this quarter.

B2B continues to thrive for Shopify. It’s pushing hard to become the “premier self-serve wholesale purchasing platform.” It’s doing this by giving customers the same by-customer discounting, draft orders, bundling and access tools that they can get elsewhere. Really where Shopify sticks out is in its ability to let merchants run B2B as just another channel within their admin. It ties perfectly to all other Shopify channels, which unlocks cohesive inventory management and just cleaner operations overall. Customers can also choose to run their B2B sites separately from the rest of their Shopify assets if they want to.

I think Shopify Flow (automated workflows) really shines within B2B too, as users can automate all table-stakes tools (like by-customer discounting) to make them easier to use. The value proposition is resonating with 6 straight 100%+ Y/Y GMV growth quarters and Forrester Wave giving it the top spot in its B2B capabilities.

Shop App:

Shopify’s consumer-facing app (Shop App) continues to outperform. It delivered 84% Y/Y GMV growth and revamped its merchant home page to improve brand discovery and shopper conversion rates. New features include a “more personalized shopping feed,” more events, better browsing and also cart syncing. Cart syncing is the most exciting thing here. It lets shoppers with abandoned web carts complete their transaction through the Shop App. Whatever Shopify can do to maximize merchant conversion rates will be met with applause and more traction. This should help.

Final Notes on Price Hikes, Marketing & Landing Big Enterprises:

“What we've noticed is that merchants believe that Shopify is still the best deal in town, including at the enterprise level… Certainly, there is some price elasticity and some room for us to increase pricing.  Right now, we're winning so many of these large merchants that it doesn't seem like it's the right time immediately. But that being said, we're going to keep driving that.”

Shopify President Harley Finkelstein

“We finished the 2025 National Retail Federation (NRF) show in January. Pretty much every retailer and every major brand on the planet is now looking to Shopify…That was not true even twelve months ago.”

Shopify President Harley Finkelstein

g. Take

This was another rock-solid quarter. Not incredible, but still good. The company is very expensive because it deserves to be. Still, that means anything but large beats and upward revisions was likely not going to be aggressively rewarded. Not irrelevant, but still noise to me.

What matters? We are left with a rapidly growing company delivering great operating leverage and market share gains in the longest runway secular growth story on the planet. Offline, B2B and international selling have all emerged as massive early innings growth vectors and AI-inspired value should become a 4th in the near future. This is a company I worry very little about, as they’ve been flawless since hiring CFO Jeff Hoffmeister, selling their fulfillment business and focusing on their core. I expect more masterful execution in 2025 as Shopify continues to fortify itself as the global commerce operating system.

3. SoFi (SOFI) — CEO Anthony Noto Interviews with Bank of America

2025-2026 Targets:

Noto talked up the revenue growth guidance raise offered on the last call, but added more language I personally found encouraging. He said that despite not raising the $0.55-$0.80 2026 EPS target range, they’re “more confident than ever” in achieving it. He also reiterated expectations for 25% EPS growth in the years beyond 2026. I’m happy to hear this any time he wants to say it.

This supports my idea I posed in the earnings review that they were close to raising this, but wanted more time to do so. As spoken about during the interview, SoFi has immense growth opportunities. It’s constantly making trade-offs on where it allocates capital in order to stay at its 30% incremental EBITDA margin target. It probably just wants more time to decide on those trade-offs before boosting the range.

As a reminder, it reached a 44% incremental EBITDA margin in 2024 due to lending conservatism and caution amid hectic macro. It will now tilt the scale back to growth in 2025 and operate the business at its stated 30% incremental EBITDA margin goal. They could maintain a 44% margin level, but that would lead to growth bottlenecks surfacing in 2027-2028, per Noto. They’re in this for the long game… not maximizing profit dollars for a quarter or two. Areas of renewed investment mentioned were the same as on the call:

  • SoFi Invest both in terms of product suite and awareness. It wants to extend the growth engine here outside of the existing member base.

  • SoFi Plus subscription which launched today for $9.99 per month.

  • Its small-medium business and insurance referral engine

The Tech Platform:

Noto directly acknowledged that tech platform growth has not been as fast as he wanted. There are two main reasons for this.

First, he reminded us that the company closed the Technisys acquisition right when regional banking turmoil broke out and heightened regulatory scrutiny unfolded. This happened right as it shifted from a fintech focus to prioritizing established banks and consumer-facing institutions with large member bases. This was a double-whammy for sales cycle elongation that SoFi is still dealing with. SoFi is “still in the running” for the large bank deals they’ve spoken about in the past, but they’re just “taking longer than planned.”

And I truly think this is macro rather than SoFi. Other quality vendors in the space like Plaid have even called the last couple years a “fintech winter” for software buying. Per that company’s CEO, fintech has barely entered “spring again.” Simply put, the backdrop for financial institutions fell off a cliff right when it was time for Galileo to start selling the full product suite. It’s just now starting to recover.

Despite this near-term turbulence, Noto thinks the importance of this purchase has never been more evident or lofty, which leads us to our second point. Galileo’s main purpose today is to serve SoFi’s consumer app. Vertical integration here is what will enable SoFi to be a technology-centered financial institution. It is what will enable SoFi to iterate and innovate at even lower cost than anyone else, while cutting 3rd party fees to create even more favorable cost dynamics for the rest of its products. It’s what will allow SoFi to aggregate customer data profiles in one place to know exactly what a customer “must do, should do and could do,” all in an effort to make products “better together.” Without Galileo… SoFi moves more slowly… more stupidly… at higher cost and with less valuable products. 3rd party vendors were just not cutting it from a customer service perspective, so SoFi decided to do it alone.

The lion’s share of the focus so far has been getting the SoFi consumer app running on the tech platform. It sounds like a lot of that work will finally be wrapped up this year, when the focus will more exclusively turn to selling Galileo to external clients. This should happen as the macro backdrop continues to brighten, as its go-to-market overhaul is completed and as its pace of client wins starts to ramp. I still fully expect a material acceleration from here, just like management does.

  • He “couldn’t be happier or more confident” in this purchase.

  • All 3 deals signed last quarter have concrete revenue ramps coming as we enter 2026. They just need to be onboarded.

Personal Loan Market Opportunity:

80%+ of SoFi personal loan borrowers are consolidating credit card debt. SoFi doesn’t see its opportunity for this product as the “personal loan industry” but the multi-trillion dollar credit card industry. The company will continue to iterate and add new offerings here to create value for customers struggling with expensive credit card debt. More products like temporarily interest-only personal loans are probably coming soon. SoFi thinks there are large chunks of outstanding revolving credit card debt that it can very profitably originate while cutting “payments in half.” And now with the lending platform (originate on the SoFi app on behalf of partners rather than with its balance sheet), it can go pursue all of this potential credit without stressing out capital ratios or taking unwanted risk. It loves this style of credit origination, as it’s very asset-light with locked-in pricing. These are not like forward flow agreements where pricing can be renegotiated on the fly if benchmark rates move.

“Most customers are just paying a minimum card payment like subscription debt. They have no intention of writing paying down rest. But they pay the minimum payment because they may need what’s not drawn. This goes on year after year. There's a large portion of those people that are not taking a personal loan out with us at a lower interest rate even though they're paying 25 or 30%. They could probably get a loan with us or about 13%.”

CEO Anthony Noto

Priorities:

Noto addressed complaints from some on delays to rolling out level one options for SoFi Invest. This isn’t a byproduct of slow innovation, but priorities. Again, SoFi has more growth opportunities than it knows what to do with and wants to stay over a 30% incremental EBITDA margin. This means it has to make constant trade-offs. Should they create a level one options product for a very small subset of members yearning for it? Or a SoFi Plus subscription offering immense value that millions could benefit from using? The answer is both… but SoFi Plus and many other things first. Level one options are coming eventually, but SoFi will do the most needle-moving, value-creating work before that. Options are “niche.”

Capital Raise Coming? No.

“Our capital ratios are self evident. We're really happy with our capital ratios, the rate where they're supposed to be. They're well cushioned from any capital restrictions we would have otherwise. It allows us to even stress them. We we think we're in a great capital position, and we're at the target capital ratios that we wanna have. So I disagree agree with those people. And as much as we say it, they're not listening. I've seen reports that say we only have a hundred million dollars of cash. They clearly can't read a balance sheet and, really understand call reports if they're making that assertion. It's just completely wrong.”

CEO Anthony Noto

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