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Table of Contents
1. Starbucks (SBUX) — Brief Earnings Snapshot
a. Demand
Beat revenue estimates by 1.8%
North America revenue beat estimates by 1%.
International revenue beat estimates by 0.6%.
Channel development revenue beat estimates by 12%.
Comp store sales fell by 2% vs. a 1% decline expected.
U.S. comp store sales were -2% vs. -3% expected.
International comp store sales were 0% vs. -2% expected.
China comp store sales were 2% vs. 1% expected.


b. Profits & Margins
EBIT missed by 11%
North American EBIT missed by 17%.
International EBIT missed by 9%.
Channel Development beat by 1.8%.
EPS missed $0.65 estimates by $0.15.


c. Balance Sheet
$4.5B in cash & equivalents.
$2.26B in inventory vs. $1.85B Y/Y.
$17.3B in total debt.
Diluted share count rose by 0.3% Y/Y.
Dividends rose 7% Y/Y.
d. (No) Guidance & Valuation
Still no guidance. SBUX trades for 36x forward EPS (the Brian Niccol effect). EPS is expected to fall by 27% this year, and then compound at a 20% clip over the next two years.


2. SoFi (SOFI) – Detailed Earnings Review
SoFi is a one-stop shop for financial services. It aims to provide consumers with excellent products for all major needs and events. It further pushes to delight them to the point of never going anywhere else. That creates key cross-selling and acquisition cost benefits. It has a large lending business with an increasingly diverse array of funding options, as well as bank accounts, brokerage services, 3rd-party insurance options, credit cards and so much more. It also owns its tech stack, has no branches and possesses a bank charter, which all give it the rare ability to combine the cost edges that incumbents and fintechs each enjoy. It also sells its tech stack to customers like H&R Block and Robinhood. My SoFi deep dive can be found here. This gets into intricate detail on SoFi’s unique value proposition within banking, and everything else you need to know about the firm.
a. Key Points
Accelerating, margin accretive growth.
Strong credit performance.
The lending platform is thriving.
Outperforming membership growth.
b. Demand
Beat revenue estimates by 6.6% & beat guidance by 7%.
Tech revenue beat estimates by 4.5%.
Lending revenue beat estimates by 4.6%.
Financial services revenue beat estimates by 20%.
Net interest income beat revenue estimates by 2%.
Non-interest income beat estimates by 20%. This is where all of the asset-light fee revenue that’s not tied to balance sheet growth is.
Beat membership estimates by 1.1%.
It was great to again see product growth in excess of member growth (even if just by a little bit) on a Q/Q and Y/Y basis.
This was SoFi’s fastest rate of revenue growth in over two years. The 11-point Q/Q growth acceleration was far in excess of the 4 points of help from easier comps.
SoFi’s unaided brand awareness has now reached 8.5%. Clearly, the CMA Fest sponsorship went well, as SoFi was around 7% just last quarter. 1.5 points in a 90-day period is quite significant and will simply make their customer acquisition more efficient, thus unlocking more productive marketing spend.



c. Profits & Margins
Beat EBITDA estimates by 19.7% & beat guidance by 21%.
43% incremental EBITDA margin vs. its annual guidance calling for a 27% incremental margin.
Beat $0.06 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.02 & beat guidance by $0.025. $0.01 of the beat was driven by tax favorability.
EPS rose from $0.01 to $0.08 Y/Y.
Beat $4.56 tangible book value per share (TBV/share) estimates by $0.16 or 3.5%.
Missed 5.91% net interest margin (NIM) estimates by 5 basis points (bps; 1 basis point = 0.01%).
NIM was 5.86% vs. 5.83% Y/Y.
NIM was aided by a 77 bps reduction in cost of funds, which was offset by 56 bps via lower asset yields. This is Y/Y data, so it does include 3 rate cuts. Good to see NIM still rise Y/Y. It shows you they can lower deposit yields faster than benchmark rates fall while maintaining great deposit growth.
By segment:
Financial services contribution margin beat 46% estimates by nearly 6 points.
Tech platform contribution margin roughly met estimates.
Lending contribution margin missed estimates by 330 bps.



d. Credit & Capital Market Health
Accounting Refresher:
As we work through this section, recall that net charge-off (NCO) is a lagging credit indicator, while delinquency rates are more of a leading indicator. Also note that SoFi doesn’t practice current expected credit loss (CECL) accounting like most of its competition. Instead, based on its desire to frequently sell loans into capital markets, it uses fair value accounting. This deploys an independent 3rd-party auditor, highly conservative macro assumptions and overly harsh delinquent loan write-down standards to set fair value markings on loan pools. To avoid pent-up unrealized losses (what caused the regional banking crisis), markings and changes in fair value flow through the income statement every single quarter. It hedges away all of these changes to eliminate the conflict of interest of shadily propping up fair values.
Credit Health:
As you can see below, even when excluding $90M in late-stage delinquent personal loan (PL) sales (a routine part of banking operations), PL NCO rate continued to materially improve Q/Q. That’s happening while the PL 90-day delinquency data also continues to improve.
SoFi remains confident in their life of loan loss rate ceiling remaining at 7%-8% and offered more compelling vintage-level data to support this stance. For Q4 2022 through Q3 2024 vintages, net cumulative losses are 4.23% while 59% of the total principal has already been paid. The last time the company approached 7%-8% loss rates, cumulative losses were 5.75% at this point of repayment. Not only are they comfortably below 5.75%, but the gap between present performance and 2017 performance continues to positively widen. It grew by 19 bps Q/Q, following 16 bps of improvement the quarter before that. For vintages ranging from Q1 2020 - Q1 2025, its 6.7% cumulative loss rate means the remaining credit would need to deliver a 10% cumulative loss rate to breach its loss tolerance. It has never come remotely close to that, as the hyper-responsible creditor remains highly selective in the borrowers it’s approving and focused on constant underwriting improvements.
This continued proof of underwriting quality will support SoFi’s own origination growth ceiling, continued capital market loan buyer health and its quickly expanding margin profile. More really good news in this department.
For student loans, there are a few notes to discuss. SoFi swapped servicers, which meant some losses were pushed from Q1 to Q2. They also bought a student loan portfolio with higher charge-offs than their overall portfolio. This led to its annualized NCO rate spiking from 47 bps to 94 bps. When excluding these two things, NCO was 64 bps in Q1 and 68 bps in Q2. They “expect normalized levels going forward. Finally, student loan default rate assumption and 90-day delinquency rates were both stable Q/Q at 0.67% and 0.13%, respectively.
Their average personal loan borrower earns $161K per year with a 743 FICO.
Their average student loan borrower earns $136K per year with a 768 FICO.


Capital Market Activity:
Quick reminder on the lending segment and the loan platform business (LPB) to tee up this segment. The company has a traditional lending business, SoFi Lantern and LPB. Traditional lending revenue comes from originating loans for its own balance sheet and either holding them or selling them to capital market buyers. That’s lending revenue. When borrowers are rejected, SoFi can send applicants to its loan marketplace, called Lantern, to match them with other creditors in exchange for a referral fee. It says no to many more borrowers than it says yes to. Lantern is a great way to keep them in the overall SoFi ecosystem, collect more revenue and enjoy more cross-selling opportunity. Lantern is financial services revenue. LPB is where it signs forward flow agreements with partners like Fortress Capital to originate loans on their behalf – right from SoFi’s app or site. Here, the vast majority of revenue is within financial services, with a very small servicing sliver counted as lending revenue. So far, LPB has been for borrowers within its credit band and, again, a way to raise its origination capacity without growing the balance sheet. That’s so important.
Now, back to the quarter.
SoFi got through a nasty cycle with resilient capital market demand. So? Now that times are better, it makes perfect sense to see these markets remain wide open to SoFi. That’s what happens when you take care of your partners. They come asking for more loan principal and more ways to work together.
This quarter, it originated $2.4B in volume through LPB vs. $1.6B Q/Q, representing ~57% growth. LPB is now up to $9.5B in annualized volume, $131M in incremental quarterly revenue and $500M in annualized revenue. As a reminder, this platform launched less than a year ago. It is taking some existing demand away from the core lending segment, but is still highly incremental to overall results.
A lot of the capital market sales volume (for its traditional lending business) we’ve come to expect is shifting to LPB. But still, it did sell $200M in personal loans at a gain on sale margin of 105.8% and $777M in home loans at a gain on sale margin of 102.2%. This continues a trend of capital market sales coming at premiums in excess of its loan markings. And why do I always mention this? SoFi gets a lot of criticism for using fair value accounting over CECL, as some think they unfairly value their loans too highly. They must not know that SoFi hedges away fair value gains from their financial statements and uses highly pessimistic macro assumptions in their fair value markings. But even if we ignore that compelling evidence, capital market buyers have better data than any of us. And they continue to clearly think SoFi’s markings are too low if anything.
All in all, through LPB and traditional lending capital market sales, SoFi sold or transferred $3.4B in total credit, marking a second consecutive quarterly record.
Lastly, SoFi again enjoyed a sizable securitization deal for loans transferred or sold to partners through LPB. It included $690M in loan principal and was SoFi’s second deal of this kind since 2021… as well as the second in two quarters. This closed at “industry-leading cost of funds levels with credit spreads at 101 bps. LPB partners enjoying easy secondary market access to move credit risk when needed is important. It will give these partners more comfort in claiming more of SoFi’s origination demand, as they observe lower risk of being stuck with unwanted loans.

Sale Volume includes LPB
A few more notes on LPB. Some of the growth this quarter was aided by SoFi expanding to “near-prime” originations for partners. It had been focused on ultra-prime for LPB just like for its other lending products. This creates a massive unlock for more credit demand, as again, SoFi rejects 5 borrowers for every 1 that it accepts. It also could create more capital market funding cyclicality, considering appetite for less ultra-prime borrowers is more fragile amid economic downturns. Needs to be said. Luckily, SoFi assured us that it’s focused on long-term capital market partners and not players looking for a quick deal. That should help during the next period of macro anxiety, which doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. For now, SoFi’s wealthy consumer base is showing zero signs of weakness.
e. More Balance Sheet & Capital Ratio Data:
SoFi has $2.1B in cash & equivalents. It pocketed 187 bps in added profit spread from shifting warehouse debt reliance to deposit-funded credit. That process of balance sheet optimization is now largely done. As a reminder, this process entails ensuring it’s using the lowest cost funding for its loan book and has been a large profit tailwind. Luckily, as we’ll see below, other revenue buckets with more durable growth runways are rocking and rolling.


f. Guidance & Valuation
Raised annual revenue guidance by 3.1%, which beat estimates by 2.6%.
The raise was about $40M larger than the Q2 beat, implying rising Q3 and Q4 expectations.
This raise came from financial services. Lending and tech platform expectations for 2025 were maintained.
They continue to expect low double-digit tech platform growth for the year.
Raised annual EBITDA guidance by 8.5%, which beat estimates by 7.9%.
The raise was about $30M larger than the Q2 beat, implying rising Q3 and Q4 expectations.
Raised annual $0.275 GAAP EPS guidance by $0.035, which beat estimates by $0.03.
This was a bit larger than the Q2 beat.
Raised TBV per share growth from $593M to $640M.
Raised member growth guidance from 28%+ to 30%+.
It sees NIM staying over 5% for the foreseeable future.
“We feel great about the business. It's operating on all cylinders. The results show that. Our outlook shows that for 2025. I think our biggest challenge beyond 2025, quite frankly, is deciding what not to do.”
CEO Anthony Noto
They remain highly confident in their 2026 guidance calling for $0.55-$0.80 in GAAP EPS and 25%+ compounded revenue growth. The mix might shift a little, which is the only thing I was slightly concerned about from this report. If that’s because lending revenue will move to financial services because of how well LPB is doing, then this is a good thing. That’s my expectation. I don’t think this is because the tech platform guidance will be revised lower. There’s been so much positive commentary there lately. Finally, Noto hinted at wanting 25% revenue compounding well beyond 2026. Previous long-term expectations called for 20%-25% GAAP EPS compounding. I firmly expect SOFI’s margins to keep expanding beyond 2026. The people I speak with at the company do too. So? If revenue growth will be 25%+ beyond 2026, EPS growth probably will be faster than its current guidance of 25% too.
SoFi trades for 67x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 88% this year and by 74% next year. I expect profit estimates to move materially higher following this report.


g. Call & Investor Materials
Financial Services – Core:
Financial services net interest income rose 39% while non-interest income rose 4x Y/Y (now $650M annualized). Non-interest income is heavily tied to fee-based revenue, where fantastic momentum within referrals fees, interchange volume, brokerage revenue and especially LPB all continued. Specifically:
SoFi Invest products rose 22% Y/Y.
SoFi Money (tied to debit) products rose 37% Y/Y. As a result, interchange revenue rose 83% Y/Y to reach $18B in annualized spend vs. $16B Q/Q.
Credit card products rose 32% Y/Y.
LPB products rose 88% Y/Y.
As we briefly mentioned, fee-based means lower credit risk; that is routinely rewarded with higher multiples by investors. It’s also how SoFi can grow in the years and even decades to come without that growth being tethered to its balance sheet. The fee-based proliferation removes liquidity and capital ratio bottlenecks that were quickly emerging and has been wonderful to see. Specifically, fee-based revenue rose 72% Y/Y to $378M and is now at $1.5B annualized. That’s nearly 50% of expected 2025 revenue.
Clearly this type of top-line growth is ideal… but this growth paired with rising engagement is a lot better. And for SoFi, revenue per financial service product rose 52% Y/Y to $98. They see a lot more upside. Relatedly, financial services also remains by far SoFi’s most powerful segment for cross-selling. Similarly to last quarter, 35% of new products were opened by existing members, which is largely thanks to this segment.
One more note on SoFi Relay. This is the firm’s product that organizes 1st and 3rd-party financial accounts for an actionable bird’s-eye view of finances. It doesn’t generate revenue on its own, but is perhaps SoFi’s best top-of-funnel tool besides the high-yield savings account. It costs SoFi just $15 to acquire a Relay customer, and these people routinely turn into hundreds or even thousands of dollars in lifetime revenue. That’s the beauty of its value proposition. No branches like other disruptors; a bank charter like incumbents; an owned tech platform like nobody else; a full suite of products for more cross-selling. That is how you outcompete on cost structure and lifetime value… that’s how you win. SoFi Relay products rose 40% Y/Y.
Its Cash Coach product, which is coming soon, will make Relay even better. It will vastly deepen the suggestions and offers SoFi can make to optimize consumer financials. That will create more value, which should mean more engagement and growth.
Financial Services – Product Roadmap:
SoFi continues to plan for a return to the crypto brokerage business this year. 60% of its members prefer to buy crypto through a chartered bank… enter SoFi. Eventually, it will offer the ability to borrow against crypto, pay with the assets and enjoy staking products offered by others like Robinhood. It also reiterated its intent to launch blockchain-based international money transfers. As previously covered, these transfers will be cheaper and routinely closed within minutes. They’ll also be available for enterprise payments. All a member will need to do is pick a person or company and initiate the transfer. Funds are sent via secure blockchain and available in a recipient’s local currency. It’s things like this that mark another reason why owning Galileo is so important. It allows SoFi to innovate more freely, build products specifically for its suite and enjoy more flexibility in its roadmap (at lower cost). And furthermore, Galileo innovation in the world of AI has already cut customer service response times by 65%.
SoFi is still working on level one options, which will hopefully be released by the end of the year. That, the return of crypto, and a renewed focus on margin lending are expected to close the monetization gap between SoFi Invest and its competition. The product is still nearly 50% under-monetized for now. Great opportunity to extract more value from existing customers without added acquisition costs. On margin lending specifically, they plan to lower their rates to make the offering more attractive than substitutes. I think they can do the same thing in crypto, considering how lofty take rates currently are in that field.
But even before that comes, the brokerage business is gaining significant momentum. Whether that’s because of offering pre-IPO access to the wildly popular Figma listing, uniquely diverse access to assets (public and private) or more dedicated marketing spend, things are going well here.
They’re very excited about the Genius Act and the impact that will have on a future stablecoin business. Interestingly, Noto thinks non-chartered banks will take at least a year to get clarity on how Genius will be implemented. They are regulated by many agencies that haven’t yet created clear rules. Because of SoFi’s charter and the outlines set forth by the OCC (its regulator), it will have a significant head start here vs. most others.
Tokenization:
SoFi plans to tokenize its loans in the future to “make them more widely available in liquid markets.” This will mean SoFi can attract smaller dollar investors, rather than requiring them to have hundreds of millions in liquidity to partner.
Core Lending:
Excluding LPB, it was still a strong quarter for originations. Specifically, SoFi originated $6.4B in total loans, with the lion’s share of that coming from 66% Y/Y personal loan growth. Student loan originations rose by 35% Y/Y, while the far smaller home lending business had a bit of a coming out quarter with 92% growth. SoFi has worked hard to acquire and integrate the assets needed to own the backend of this process. Now, it does and is in a great spot to accelerate things as the macro backdrop likely provides more rate cuts to add fuel to the fire. Home equity loan originations were again roughly 33% of the total home.
The new prime credit card personal loan product is off to a good start.
Tech Platform:
SoFi landed Banco Nación as a new Galileo client. It’s one of the largest financial institutions in Argentina and is already enjoying a 25% boost to organic client growth thanks to Galileo. That should attract some more prospects. They reiterated 10 clients going live in 2026 that will begin contributing meaningfully to revenue.
Incremental Margins:
SoFi told us at the start of the year that it would lean more aggressively into growth spend and allow incremental margins to fall from the mid-40s to 30%. That’s not happening. Why? Because revenue is so meaningfully outperforming; it takes time for SoFi to be able to spend the extra dollars that the added fixed cost leverage creates. This happens every single quarter. It then attempts to use that excess profit the following quarter, but because revenue trends remain so exceedingly strong, it cannot find ways to spend quickly enough. Great problem to have. And I think that will simply continue.
Shelf-Offering After Hours:
SoFi announced a $1.5B shelf offering after-hours. This gives them the ability to raise $1.5B in common equity in the future. It’s somewhat likely this could be used for an acquisition of some sort, but I am speculating.
Regardless, this morning SoFi reiterated their 2026 GAAP EPS guidance calling for $0.55-$0.80 per share and raised their 2025 GAAP EPS guidance. There is no chance they didn’t bake this into those targets before offering them. This was certainly already part of those forecasts. I expect the stock to respond negatively tomorrow, and I will treat that as noise. This does nothing to change my bullishness for the company. I know that I’ve trimmed a couple times recently, but I will stay patient with adding to this name as it has still more than doubled in a quarter.
h. Take
Another great quarter from a great company with a great team and a great opportunity it’s consistently capturing. Great. As the preview spelled out, I was expecting excellent results like these were. At the same time, the stock has been on an absolute tear since April, so it’s understandable to see some of the gains given back during the day (as the preview talked about). Not important for the long-term investor, but still interesting.
This is the largest non-megacap holding in the portfolio by a wide margin. This quarter again made it obvious why that is the case. They continue to steadily accelerate growth, become more asset light, expand margins, debut impactful products, deliver great credit performance and win. I am so pleased. I am not trimming shares here, but would likely entertain doing so around $28.
3. PayPal (PYPL) — Detailed Earnings Review
PayPal provides branded omni-channel checkout and financial services to a massive base of consumers and merchants. It also provides non-branded payment processing through Braintree, payouts-as-a-service through Hyperwallet, identifiable guest checkout through Fastlane and it owns Venmo. To read up on everything there is to know about PayPal, my deep dive can be found here. Aside from financials (which I update every quarter in these reviews), most of that information is still relevant and mainly current. Some is now dated, so for a full review of their recent investor day, click here.
a. Key Points
Fantastic quarter for Venmo.
Braintree growth is set to turn positive next quarter, following the profit pivot and successful contract negotiations.
Branded checkout slowed a tad due to tariffs for Chinese sellers.
Despite China, it still beat and raised thanks to improving product innovation and execution.
“We had a strong quarter, delivering profitable growth and building momentum in transforming PayPal from a payments company into a dynamic commerce platform.”
CEO Alex Chriss
b. Demand
Beat revenue estimates by 2.5%.
Braintree contract negotiations and cutting unprofitable volume was around a 5-point headwind for revenue growth. Just like last quarter.
5% Y/Y FXN revenue growth. This beat 3% estimates & 3% guidance.
Transaction revenue rose 4% Y/Y; other value-added services (OVAS) rose 16% Y/Y as it leaned back in to merchant credit originations.
Beat total payment volume (TPV) estimates by 1.8%.
Beat Venmo TPV estimates by 3%.
Transactions fell 5% Y/Y but rose 6% Y/Y when excluding the impact of Braintree contract cuts and renegotiations as it prioritizes profitable growth for that segment.


Q1-25 Y/Y FXN Branded Checkout TPV Growth adjusts for Leap Day.
c. Profits & Margins
Beat EBIT estimates by 6%.
Non-transaction OpEx rose by 2% Y/Y.
EBIT benefited from some spending slipping into Q3. Cost discipline and revenue outperformance also both helped a lot.
Beat $1.30 EPS estimates & beat guidance by $0.10 each.
Buybacks and tax favorability helped a bit and offset headwinds from lower interest rates.
EPS rose by 18% Y/Y.
Sharply missed $1.77B FCF estimates by roughly $1.1B. Quarterly FCF is noisy and heavily influenced by movement in working capital and timing of spend. PayPal is leaning into business loan originations, which eat cash. They added $7.7B in loans receivable during the quarter, vs. $5.6B expected. That’s the entire source of the miss and then some. Noise.
Focus on annual FCF (where guidance was reiterated).
Beat transaction margin dollar guidance by 1.8%. This represents 7% Y/Y growth vs. 4.5% growth guidance and 8% Y/Y growth excluding customer balances vs. 7% guidance.
Transaction margin was slightly lower than expected, but transaction margins dollars were a modest beat vs. expectations, thanks to the revenue outperformance.
Growth includes a 150 bps benefit from renewing and expanding a large partnership (I think Shopify).
PayPal incurred $92M in GAAP restructuring charges during the quarter as it began its multi-year migration to move the rest of its data center usage to public clouds.


d. Balance Sheet
$13.7B in cash, equivalents & investments.
$11.5B in total debt.
Two quarters ago, it announced a new buyback worth 17% of the market cap. Share count fell by nearly 7% Y/Y during the quarter.
PayPal is “pleased with quality, diversification and performance of its credit book as it accelerates originations following a temporary pullback. It sounds like they’re going to sell another large chunk of receivables in the future – like they did with the EU BNPL portfolio sale to KKR.
e. Guidance & Valuation
Raised annual transaction margin dollar guidance by 0.7%.
This now represents 5.5% growth vs. 4.5% growth in its previous annual guidance offered last quarter.
This also now represents 6.5% Y/Y growth excluding customer balances vs. 6.0% Y/Y growth in its previous annual guidance.
Raised annual $5.03 EPS guidance by $0.20, which beat by $0.14.
Reiterated annual low single-digit operating expense (OpEx) growth.
Reiterated annual $6.5B FCF guidance, which slightly missed estimates.
Continues to expect $6B in buybacks and $1B in CapEx.
Guidance anticipates two more rate cuts this year and a $125M headwind to net interest income.
For Q3, they guided to around 4% FXN revenue growth, which is roughly as expected. They also see non-transaction OpEx rising by nearly 10% Y/Y, as again some spending moved from Q2 to Q3 and they are investing in products. Q3 EPS guidance was exactly as expected.
Guidance includes room for e-commerce spending slowing by a few points, but it hasn’t seen that slowing play out.
PayPal trades for 15x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 10% this year and by 11% next year. Estimates for 2025 will tick a bit higher following this report.
They also reiterated their 3-year outlook. Good to hear. The targets include TM dollar growth accelerating to the high single digits and EPS growth accelerating to low-teens growth by 2027. They’re expected to compound earnings at a clip closer to 11%, so a reiteration here is above consensus expectations. Beyond 2027, they expect 10%+ TM dollar growth and 20%+ EPS growth – both well in excess of expectations.


f. Call & Investor Materials
Branded Checkout & Macro:
There was some concern about branded checkout growth modestly slowing Q/Q. This was related to tariffs in Asia, with PayPal noticing a very local slowdown with Chinese sellers specifically. They didn’t see any macro softening anywhere else besides there, which leads me to believe this reason is legitimate. Excluding this, branded checkout growth would have been stable at 6% Y/Y and they’ve already seen things accelerate in July. The team remains highly confident in branded checkout growth improving through the end of 2025 and into 2026.
Despite the Asian macro softening, they beat expectations and raised most of their guidance targets for the year (FCF reiterated). In the past, this type of headwind would have been far more damaging to PayPal’s business. The significantly less noticeable impact, I think, is simply due to better innovation, consumer value, messaging and execution. The backdrop wasn’t overly cooperative, PayPal just now has a leadership team capable of delivering strong results across a wide array of environments. They’ve worked hard to create better offerings and to make PayPal the most rewarding place to shop. These things, especially within branded experiences, are why the business is now more resilient.
Improving Branded Experiences – Modern Checkout Flows:
PayPal has vastly accelerated the rollout of its modern checkout flows. While the old team moved at a snail’s pace, adding merchants one at a time in a painfully inefficient manner, that’s no longer the case. It went from 20% of its largest USA merchants having access to 45% last quarter and kept progress moving, as 60% now have access. Across the world it’s already up to around 15% penetration, and it thinks progress outside of North America will be even more rapid now that it's focused on global expansion. As you’d expect with a vastly more convenient and expedient checkout product, the volume uplift from this change has been sizable.
Improving Branded Experiences – Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)
BNPL revenue growth surpassed 20% Y/Y while monthly active users rose by 18% Y/Y. It keeps taking more market share. As this scales, the tangible PayPal benefits are building. Average order value is 80%+ higher for BNPL users vs. non-users, which is significantly higher than the 20% uplift they’ve cited in the past. Customers are flocking to their superior availability and trusted brand. On the other end, merchants are gravitating towards its BNPL offering for the tangible revenue uplift and lower cost integrations it provides vs. the competition.
Some merchants are enjoying a profoundly positive impact from BNPL upstream presentment (placing the option earlier in the shopping journey). For Ace Hardware, this earlier button display is creating a 35% uplift to PayPal sales through their store and a 7x rise in average order values (AOVs). PayPal is now expanding beyond the 9 markets where BNPL is currently offered to build on all of this fantastic momentum. While Block chose to (in hindsight) vastly overpay to acquire their own BNPL vendor, PayPal cultivated it internally and has turned it into a great piece of the business. Big success story and one of the rare times when the old team deserves credit.
Improving Branded Experiences – Venmo:
Venmo is thriving. Revenue and volume growth accelerated to the fastest pace in 3 years, with revenue growth specifically ticking above 20% Y/Y. Pay with Venmo volume and users rose 45% and 25% Y/Y respectively. Debit card monthly actives rose 40% Y/Y.
Venmo has always had a massive, affluent and engaged user base. That’s why it was so frustrating to see the old team let the growth engine rely on peer-to-peer payments and prematurely slow. That slowing made many people worried that Venmo had lost its fiercely user loyalty and that it couldn’t effectively debut and cross-sell more solutions to reignite expansion. Not only has this reignited, but it is on fire. Whether it’s product focus on things like checkout and debit or better marketing to build awareness, Venmo is again the star of this enterprise.
I’m also excited about the new Big Ten and Big 12 conference partnerships. Venmo will enable easy payouts for athletes within revenue sharing programs, while the few dozen large state schools all work to add Pay with Venmo adoption across their campuses. That’s the perfect way to build sticky engagement with the next generation of young affluent individuals who already live on your app for peer-to-peer. Venmo is finally giving the people what we want.
“When I joined nearly 2 years ago, the big question was, can you grow Venmo? Today, the answer is a resounding yes, and you're starting to see it in our results.”
CEO Alex Chriss
Improving Branded Experiences – Omni-Channel:
Overall debit card users and TPV (including the Venmo stats above) rose by 60% and 65%, respectively. The company added 2M new debit card users and also a new physical card for PayPal Credit. This builds on the existing product to let people use it online or in-store. It also offers compelling financing offers and will complement the PayPal Cashback Mastercard, rather than replacing it. Like BNPL, users of either of these tools deliver compelling engagement and preference gains, and the omnichannel expansion for PayPal credit should support that further.
As a reminder, late last year, PayPal launched a new omni-channel go-to-market campaign in “PayPal Everywhere.” PayPal Everywhere extends PayPal’s already compelling online rewards program to offline settings. Now, customers can select a category to receive 5% cash-back and can combine these discounts with more savings from in-app promotions. This quarter, the initiative expanded to Germany right as PayPal debuted its first contactless digital wallet in that nation. They’re extremely excited about early traction, as this has already enjoyed 3 million signups, with over half of those people using it as their default tap-to-pay wallet. To tie this more neatly into the brick-and-mortar push, PayPal is running a cashback promotion there in 2,000 participating stores. The UK is the next country where PayPal will add its contactless digital wallet. They continue to succeed and take more market share across Europe.
Improving Branded Experiences – PayPal World:
In last week’s article, I introduced PayPal World. It’s a very important launch, so I wanted to link back to it for those who missed it (section 3). We learned a few new things about this. First, PayPal has received significant inbound interest from other digital wallet players to join the alliance. That will mean more convenient, familiar access for consumers… and an ability for merchants to more quickly, cheaply and safely offer local payment methods in each of their markets. It will drive payment interoperability and volume through delight. Secondly, PayPal expects unit economics for these transactions to be the same as its other branded experiences.
Interoperable digital wallets have been tried in the past and failed to gain traction. They were confusing and hard to use. PayPal thinks it has done the work necessary to create slick integrations and intuitive shopping experiences, thus alleviating the confusion that has plagued these offerings until now.
Agentic Commerce:
As discussed throughout the quarter, PayPal is now working with Anthropic, Perplexity, Salesforce and many other commerce leaders to create agentic shopping experiences. Until the current AI boom, online shopping was a treasure hunt. Unless you knew exactly where to go, a consumer was required to dig through various pages to find what they wanted. As that digging drags on, conversion rates fall. Now, AI algorithms do the digging for us. All we do is tell them “I need a new golf glove” and maybe a color preference. PayPal, using its unmatched consumer shopping history, will use previous orders to understand our style, price point, hand size, grip preference etc. and point us exactly where we want to go. It’s easy to see how that can be plugged into enterprise software buying processes and virtually everything else to make discovery more automated. And if PayPal is the payments provider making this happen, that large uplift to shopper efficiency will mean more volume for the company. They’ve been moving rapidly here, and I think that will eventually bear fruit. Not yet. Probably 2026.
Ads:
PayPal debuted off-site ads to connect demand to other sites across the internet. This is the unlock Mercado Libre is relying on to turn their ad business into the largest in Latin America. While PayPal will never realistically catch Meta or Alphabet in the states, I do think this can be a meaningful accelerant to this high margin business. The ads will be personalized and targeted thanks to vast customer data profiles PayPal has with 200M+ monthly active accounts.
They also debuted storefront ads, enabling end-to-end shopping experiences from the specific placement and will expand the ad business to more countries throughout the year. As a reminder, like agentic commerce, this is not supposed to be a meaningful revenue driver until 2026.
Braintree and PayPal Complete Payments (PPCP):
The multi-quarter period of Braintree contract renegotiations is winding to a close. They are very pleased with the decision. Talks with merchants went very well, they’ve successfully improved the margin profile of the business and are ready to deliver consistently profitable growth going forward. Braintree volume growth was 0% Y/Y this quarter and is set to accelerate through the rest of the year. Value-added services like Hyperwallet (payouts) are a key piece of this improvement and were a deciding factor in PayPal landing the Big Ten and Big 12 contracts.

“The consequence of that reset was pressure on growth in exchange for long-term profitability. Now we are on the other side of that and can confidently say that our strategy worked.”
CEO Alex Chriss
For PPCP, the company launched its fraud protection offering and added Wix as a new checkout integration partner. 50% of total SMB volume is now running through PPCP, which positively impacts checkout trends just like on the branded side.
More Notes:
Debuted Pay with Crypto to manage real-time crypto to stablecoin and fiat translation.
Exploring more subscriptions to drive repeat purchasing. I want to see this happen.
Not much new on Fastlane (expedited guest checkout). It sounds like PayPal needs to enable multi-processor usage to unlock the guest checkout product’s growth curve. That will happen by the end of the year. Good thing they’ve partnered with Adyen and so many others.
g. Take
A really good quarter. I don’t care what the stock did. I don’t care if more of their FCF generation will come in Q3 and Q4 instead of Q2. I won’t get annoyed with them because branded checkout slowed for a few weeks due to tariffs and immediately recovered thereafter. This was very good.
Venmo has turned a corner and then some, while branded PayPal checkout remains resilient with more help on the way. Braintree reached its profitable growth inflection point and should be smooth sailing from here. They’re innovating, implementing that innovation and building traction for the new offerings far faster than the old team could. Whether that’s within ads, agentic commerce, Fastlane, Pay with Venmo, Braintree services or elsewhere, this company is in a better place than it has been in years.
Chriss has earned my trust through great execution since he took over, and I will remain (immensely) patient with the stock for as long as the company performs. Admittedly, this has been a dud of a stock since I’ve started a position. But this is again turning into a gem of a company. Everything that I wanted to look good did look good, and I’m not going to criticize a positive report because the stock fell after it came out. Max readers, you saw the portfolio update from earlier today.
“Bending the growth curve takes time for a company of our scale, but we remain confident that the actions we are taking today position us well to accelerate over time.”
CFO Jamie Miller
