The Trade Desk sold off this morning on Walmart contract news. Per an article posted by The Information, Walmart renegotiated their programmatic ad contract to be non-exclusive. They’ll still work with TTD, but will also work with others like Amazon’s demand-side platform.
Importantly, while this was published today, it happened last year. That means the headwind is fully baked into Q3 guidance and their 2026 revenue growth acceleration forecast. Furthermore, a TTD spokesperson responded to The Information’s request for comment with “the relationship is going from strength to strength.”
I’ve spent the last few days chatting with industry contacts in programmatic advertising about this firm. There has been incessant TTD noise, so I wanted to collect other opinions to see how they mesh with my optimistic point of view. I’m always looking to challenge my own bull cases.
After chatting with these people, it’s clear that trust in Jeff Green and The Trade Desk has waned. They do not believe them when they say Amazon isn’t hurting their business. They do not believe them when they discuss being perfectly positioned to take more market share and grow for a very long time. They do not trust the 2026 acceleration.