I think a big part of the bull thesis is the data, training and compute they can do with FSD should be better than competitors especially at scale. Waymo can’t produce at scale.
Also, this sounds like “bullshit” but Elon is a big part of the Tesla thesis, the guy has done what was widely regarded as impossible many times across different industries. Even though most of the current revenue for Tesla comes from just cars, they have a number of projects that are far-out Elon goals like Optimus and it would be nuts to bet against him. Maybe not a solid bull thesis but at least it should be a bear deterrent - like you said, you would never short it but tons of retail investors do lol.
Great post!
I think a big part of the bull thesis is the data, training and compute they can do with FSD should be better than competitors especially at scale. Waymo can’t produce at scale.
Also, this sounds like “bullshit” but Elon is a big part of the Tesla thesis, the guy has done what was widely regarded as impossible many times across different industries. Even though most of the current revenue for Tesla comes from just cars, they have a number of projects that are far-out Elon goals like Optimus and it would be nuts to bet against him. Maybe not a solid bull thesis but at least it should be a bear deterrent - like you said, you would never short it but tons of retail investors do lol.
Rule of thumb: never short a market darling. I think Tesla falls in that category.
Thank you for the summary, Brad! I really appreciate your writing style—it's clear and engaging.