Table of Contents
Welcome back to earnings season! Over the next several weeks, I will be sending 40 detailed reviews on popular, high-quality companies. Upcoming reviews include Robinhood, Meta, SoFi, AMD, Palantir and so many others coming thereafter.
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a. Key Points
- Tesla's auto business returned to Y/Y growth.
- The company plans to spend $25B in 2026 CapEx to support several areas of expansion.
- Optimus is still on track to begin production this year.
b. Demand
- Missed revenue estimate by 1.3%. This is based on the consensus number from Bloomberg as of this afternoon. Tikr and other sources had the revenue estimate at $22.3B, which would have made this a slight beat.
- Beat auto revenue estimate by 2.5%.
- Beat services revenue estimate by 17.8%.
- Missed energy revenue estimate by 35%. This segment is lumpy on a quarterly basis. Tesla reiterated expectations for positive Y/Y segment growth.
c. Profits & Margins
- Beat 18% GAAP GPM estimate by 310 basis points (bps; 1 basis point = 0.01%)
- Beat 15.3% auto GPM ex-credits estimate by 390 bps. Excluding $230M in one-time help, this margin would have been 17.7% instead of 19.2%.
- Beat GAAP EBIT estimate by 26%.
- OpEx rose due to a full quarter of stock comp from their 2025 CEO compensation plan and more AI-related spending.
- Beat $0.38 EPS estimate by $0.04.
- Beat -$1.9B FCF estimate by $3.3B.
